交易情况稳定些了吗？

下图是我当时首次预测本次下跌的图表：

所以…今天市场会发生些什么状况？这是个好问题…在欧盘时段进一步直接下跌或者在下跌之前出现较大幅度的价格反弹。这也是我感到疑惑的地方。更大的问题是，价格的震荡运行充满暴力，很难确定进场和出场点位。最有可能做的是结合目前的下跌走势去完善预期计划。

澳元出现了很大幅度的价格反弹。不排除将出现往更高点位修正的走势，但这个走势发展很艰难。

需要观察今天早上的缺口修补情况。否则，其价格走势基本跟欧系货币步调一致。

美元兑日元崩溃式下跌也是烦恼产生的根源之一。但有趣的是，价格目前在一个较低价位区间暂时得到支撑。在日线级别上价格出现了轻微的看涨背离信号—在4小时图级别相对较明显。然而周五出现的下跌基本摧毁了任何上涨的信心。最近出现的持续走低的价格腿相当有劲道，所以很难产生任何看涨预期的信号，但我仍需要价格下破上周五低点的走势确认…总体来讲，应会带动欧元兑日元延续下行…

当市场震荡走势延续的时候，谨慎进行交易操作…

预祝拥有获利丰厚的交易周。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Steadier trading?

That was the largest gut-wrenching move I have seen in my 34-year career in Forex. GBPUSD dropped by 12%. I recall researching the largest 1-day moves some years ago and basically the maximum was around 6%. Did Brexit cause that decline? Well, I guess so but I actually forecast this drop back in the second half of 2014. It was always going to happen. What’s more, once the current furore is over – and that won’t be until later next year – both EUR and GBP will recover but GBP will be stronger. On the other hand, the Euro will, in years to come, will make new lows that in GBP will correspond to a correction only.

Here is the chart when I first forecast this decline:(same as above in Chinese content)

So… what’s in store for today? Good question… Further direct losses in the Europeans or a deeper correction higher before those losses. That’s the puzzle I have. The larger issue is that the swings are developing in such violence that it’s very tough to be certain of both entry and exit points. Most likely the better outlook is working with the downside.

The Aussie saw a very deep pullback. I won’t rule out a marginal new corrective high but it’s touch and go. We’ll have to see this morning’s gap exceeded. Otherwise, it’s basically in the European group.

That USDJPY collapsed was a source of annoyance. However, interestingly it stalled at a low support area. It has a minor daily bullish divergence – and a longer 4-hour divergence. However, Friday’s drop hardly provides any confidence on the upside. These recent legs lower have been rather aggressive so it’s difficult to suggest any bullish outlook but I’d also need a downside confirmation below Friday’s low… Overall, it should allow EURJPY to continue its decline…

Take care while the swings continue…

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey