不偏不倚的定位？--行情走势预测

从欧元兑美元和英镑兑美元这一对“古怪组合”的走势力度表现来看，似乎像在轧平头寸。从5月下旬和6月初开始延续的较大幅度跌势，市场似乎并没有什么欲望去持有大量的头寸。至少，看起来似乎在为修正幅度做准备。我还没看出相应的价格高点（英镑兑美元-5月26日，欧元兑美元-6月8日）会在公投结果宣布前被突破的迹象。民调显示双方的力量均衡，所以没有谁愿意把自己的身家押注在这么不确定的预期上。

但从这一点上来看，仍有一些需要重新定位的情况，短期内，我认为市场不会出现过多的价格波动。似乎在1，2个货币对中仍会出现些有限的后续发展，在未来的几天内有进一步下行的风险，但更大的风险是出现潜在复杂的价格修正走势——将保持平台型整理走势，直到触发更大级别的走势方向。

澳元的运行也进一步接近了6月8日的高点—0.7504，但小时级别出现了看跌反转信号。虽然这么说，但价格走势仍有机会进一步上行但预期不会突破0.7504高点。

日元货币对的走势发展受到重创。我虽期待欧元兑日元进一步下行，但并不真正想看到美元兑日元下跌到如此低位的情况—回到103.75。特别是美元兑日元，当价格运行到一些关键位置时需要耐心观察其走势情况—特别明显的就是103.54这个低点。但是，我感觉欧元兑日元需要反弹到更高点位，似乎意味着美元兑日元需要为其价格运行提供动能，小心看待这几个货币对的走势发展…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Neutral positioning?

The strength in the “Odd Couple” – that’s EURUSD and GBPUSD – appears to me like position squaring. Following the rather deep losses from late May and early June, the market has not got the appetite to hold substantial positions. At least, that seems to be a likely reasoning for the depth of the recovery. I can’t see the respective peaks (GBPUSD – 26th May, EURUSD – 8th June) being penetrated before the Brexit results are announced. The polls have the two sides ptty much balanced so no one is going to bet their house on such flimsy expectations.

I can still see some repositioning going on but from this point, in the short term, I don’t think we’re going to see excessive moves. There appears to still be some limited follow-through in one or two currencies but other than that the risk will be for a move lower over the coming days but with a much higher risk of corrective structures – potentially complex – that will maintain a platform from where the results will trigger a more aggressive move.

Even the Aussie has approached the 8th June high at 0.7504 but there is a strong hourly bearish divergence. Having said that, there remains a chance that we could see further gains but not above 0.7504.

The JPY pairs have tumbled. I was expecting losses in EURJPY but had not really wanted to see USDJPY drop so low – back to 103.75. Particularly in USDJPY there are some fine lines that need to be observed – ptty obviously the 103.54 low. However, I feel that EURJPY needs to pop back higher and that appears to suggest that USDJPY needs to be the driver. Take care with these guys…

Good trading

Ian Copsey