震荡走势延续到周末--行情走势预测

强势的下跌，大幅的反弹…在一些价格结构里，确实产生了一些小止损的有效交易机会。未来的一周内似乎我们将会看到一些这类型的机会出现。事实上，在下周末之前，价格波动会更加明显。今天的走势行情将会出现重复吗?我觉得会有某些程度的风险出现。毫无疑问日内确实是有部分时间将会出现波动并一直延续到周末，应该会出现更大幅度的震荡整理走势。但我怀疑这是所有货币对都会出现的情况—或者程度有所不同。

特别是，我对英镑兑美元的发展预期前景转为保守，因其价格走势出现较复杂的无序结构。明显呈现下行风险进一步加大，但我怀疑其走势发展会跟昨日欧元兑美元一样震荡。

说到震荡，我不由惊叹美元兑日元的走势，价格下跌到103.54低位。之前我并不认为价格会运行到这个位置，但这个点位却是我的表格当中最极限的目标。价格出现稳步修正，但还没有触及第一反转目标。在还没到达这个目标之前，我们仍需要保持谨慎。美元兑日元的下跌走势带动了欧元兑日元的下行。这虽然也是一个预期，但价格往下一个目标点位运行的修正走势幅度太小…我们目前需要关注究竟是欧元兑美元还是美元兑日元提供了较强的价格发展动能…

澳元昨日的走势发展也很不错—另一个震荡品种。目前价格所运行的位置预示将进一步小幅走高，但我们需要小心处理。

价格走势将出现一定程度的波动一直延续到周末…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Swing into the weekend

The stronger a drop, the deeper the pullback… well, in some parts of the structure they produce really useful trades with minimal stop losses. It seems we may see a few more of these over the coming week. Indeed, by the end of next week the volatility will obviously be maxed out. Will we see that repeated today? Well, there’s a good risk of some decent moves again I think. No doubt the early part of the day will see a drift but going into the weekend should see some further whipsaws developing. However, I doubt this will be the case for all pairs – or to a lesser extent.

In particular, GBPUSD has suddenly become conservative in its outlook and has developed a rather ragged structure that has the look of an irregular correction. Obviously the downside risk is going to be higher but I doubt it will perform as yesterday’s EURUSD swings.

When talking of swings, I could not help watch in awe as USDJPY dropped to 103.54. No I didn’t think it would get there but it was the most extreme projection target in my spadsheet – on the dot. The recovery has been steady but it hasn’t reached the first reversal target. Until then we still need to be cautious. That drop in USDJPY swished down to take EURJPY down with it. That was an expectation but the pullback was so shallow that it moved on to the next target… We now have to see which of EURUSD or USDJPY provides the stronger momentum…

The Aussie had a good day also – another swinger. It’s now in a position where it could edge higher but we’ll have to treat this with care.

We should see some decent moves into the weekend…

Good trading

Ian Copsey