行情发展令人吃惊

昨天的价格走势有一半是与我所提及的预期情况相符，英镑兑美元的价格运行没有任何进展，而欧元兑日元和澳元则表现很好。FOMC确实扰乱了市场行情，但也很奇妙地起到了恰到好处的作用，结合实际走势中形成的稳定基础，似乎很好地契合了波浪的发展。因此，这个“吃惊”帮了我们忙—或者帮了我的忙。

目前美联储这边的情况暂时确定，现在再次聚焦欧盟事件，换汤不换药，结果都是一样…美元的走强。话虽如此，当然也是需要等待，特别是在亚盘时段，但这是好事，因为欧元兑日元在进一步下跌之前需要展现另一段震荡走势。事实上，美元兑日元和欧元兑美元之间的平衡似乎

受到欧元兑日元的精心安排。这是走势最不简单的一个货币对，因为价格的走势倾向而导致了较复杂和异常的结构出现。然而，目前价格展现了很好的下行路径，伴随较小的投影目标，预期目标价位非常清晰。

我一直在英镑兑美元的阻力区间等待着，期间价格走势展现了几个场景。相对比欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎来讲，英镑几乎对FOMC表现出无所畏惧的样子。价格走势可能会进一步推高，但事实上几乎没有为下一步行动眨一下眼（可能已经睡着…），所以FOMC公布的情况或许对其走势运行有些帮助。

至于日元货币对…嗯…,美元兑日元表现有些奇怪，但价格运行确确实实触及了我的表格中的另一个备选目标，并确认了一个三角形走势的完成。价格下破了105.54低点，但随后反弹到更高点位。从这一点上看，我认为我们需要小心处理。价格仍有进一步下行的风险。因此，结合欧元兑日元方面的上述看法，以及欧元兑美元和美元兑日元的走势发展情况，我们应该得出一些前景展望…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Spooked

While yesterday worked against me for half of the pairs I cover, GBPUSD went nowhere while EURJPY and the Aussie performed admirably. It was the FOMC that really screwed it up but, strangely enough, it appears to have jogged the wave development along to actually provide a more stable footing. Thus, the “spooker” has done us – or me – a favour.

So, now it’s done, it’s all about the Eee-eewww again and that promises the same medicine and the same outcome... Dollar bullish. Having said that, there is a certain sense of waiting, particularly during the Asian session, but this is good because we need another wriggle in EURJPY before it can move back lower. Indeed, the balance between USDJPY and EURUSD has almost looked like being orchestrated by EURJPY. It’s not the easiest of pairs because of its propensity to generate awkward and irregular structures. However, it is in a nice downward path with lower degree projections that have some ptty clear targets.

I have been sitting on the fence in GBPUSD with several scenarios. Compared to EURUSD and USDCHF the Pound barely flinched at the FOMC. It could have pushed up much higher but the fact it didn’t even blink an eyelid (probably sleeping…) has opened up the next move so the FOMC process appears to have helped.

The JPY pairs… hmmm… well, USDJPY was a little strange but did hit an alternative target I had in my spadsheet on the dot and the confirmed a triangle that has now completed. It has broken below the 105.54 low but then whipped back higher. From this point I think we need to progress with care. It still has downside risk. Thus, with the comments on EURJPY above and the combination with EURUSD and USDJPY, we should have a decent outlook…

Good trading

Ian Copsey