兔子与大前灯—行情走势预测

除了一些例外情况之外，昨天的行情走势发展情况基本与预期相符。预期走势主要受英镑兑美元和来自美元兑日元少量运行动力的拖累影响。否则，行情发展结果会更直观地贴近预期情况。首先是英镑兑美元，我对其价格触及1.4114的走势感到震惊。事实上，我的大女儿发短信问我欧元兑英镑什么时候价格最低，因为她要去西班牙。我打开我的图表，发现1.4114这个价格低位已被触及，再核查一下我的表格，85.4%投影的浪v正好是在1.4114…这个极限的投影目标并不常出现。除此以外，价格的修复走势情况已令人满意。

欧元兑美元也触及了目标区域的低点位置，但美元兑瑞士法郎到达了阻力区间，但随后退却了，价格运行似乎处于无序震荡状态。倾向于展现一个相当中立的走势或者修正的结果。也许最好的方式是任由价格自由发挥直到再次出现明朗的运行方向。对于欧元兑美元，我怀疑价格会在一段时间内维持震荡走势。走势会否持续到下周四的退欧公投结果公布，这是我们需要解决的问题。

同时，澳元的走势表现相当不错，但现在价格似乎游荡到了内陆地区。最终的结果应该仍是符合预期，但看起来似乎需要满足一个独特的条件要求，以便令结构形态恢复常态。最好是等待价格运行极限点位的出现…

至于日元货币对，欧元兑日元的运行情况似乎成了美元兑日元的走势发展动能。后者价格下行到了105.73，随后出现超出预期的修正走势。交叉盘出现的下跌幅度略比预期大，但随后出现了完美的反弹，因此需要价格延续下行到更低点位。欧元兑美元和美元兑日元之间的最终平衡会显得比较重要…这可能会产生一个令人惊讶的结果…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

 Rabbits and headlights…

With some exceptions yesterday basically developed as expected. The main detractor was GBPUSD and to a lesser degree USDJPY. Otherwise, the outcomes developed directionally and mostly close to expectations. To cover GBPUSD first, I have to say I was shocked to see it reach 1.4114. In fact, my eldest daughter texted me to ask when EURGBP will be at its weakest because she was off to Spain. I opened my charting and saw the 1.4114 low being hit, checked my spadsheet and saw the 85.4% projection in the Wave v at 1.4114… This extreme projection doesn’t occur that often. Apart from that, the recovery has been satisfactory.

EURUSD also found a low in the target area but USDCHF reached a resistance area but then wimped out and appears to be wandering around drunkenly. It tends to suggest to me a rather neutral or corrective outcome. It’s probably best left alone until it has become sober again. For EURUSD I suspect a period of neutrality. Whether that can last through to the Brexit vote result on Thursday is something we’ll have to work with.

Meanwhile the Aussie performed quite well but now appears to have wandered into the outback. The end result should still be as expected but there seems to be an odd requirement for to bring the structure back into order. Best wait for the extremes to be met…

As for the JPY pairs, it almost seems as if EURJPY has been the driver of USDJPY. The latter saw losses to 105.73 but then corrected higher than expected. The cross saw losses a little firmer than expected but followed by a perfect pullback and thus needs to extend lower. The resultant balance between EURUSD and USDJPY should be quite important… This could generate quite a surprising outcome…

Good trading

Ian Copsey