市场不会重演上周五的行情走势

“我怀疑今天整体价格波幅有限…”

价格较低级别的震荡整理会带来什么不同…上周五价格走势与预期完全走反，美元进一步上行并远离我所预期的目标点位—至少是短期内。美元的上行情况似乎对大部分的货币对带来了联动性影响，除了英镑兑美元出现从高位下跌的痛苦走势之外。实际上，价格还会有进一步创新低的风险，但应该不会下探太多…

美元所表现的走强程度，进一步拓展了较低级别和较高级别浪型之间的平衡限度。可能不会有什么惊喜表现，距离英国退欧公投还有10天的时间（根据我一年前的结构预期），市场将要调整价格位置。这将会出现反转走势－应会在接下来的几天时间内开始－美元将出现较大幅度的下跌。

奇特的是，虽然澳元兑美元没有太强意愿决定与欧系货币对连成同一阵型，但其大致的价格结构形态与欧系货币对非常相似，基于价格的下跌程度考虑，后续需要出现更大幅度的反弹修正。

剩下的日元货币对…价格走势倾向于减少方向性运行—或者更适当的是—出现更大级别的震荡走势，但相对于其他交易品种振幅较小。除了当价格运行到结构形态中的关键支撑和阻力区间，否则可能最好的方式是任其价格自由发展。只要小心跟随价格的运行发展走势应该能找到些短线交易机会。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Friday won’t be repeated

“I suspect we’ll have a relatively limited range day today…”

What a difference a lower degree wriggle makes… My outlook on Friday went totally wrong, the Dollar rocketing higher and far beyond any targets I had – at least in the short term. These gains do generally look like extending in most pairs, the exception being GBPUSD that has already seen a gut-wrenching leap off the tallest room of the tallest tower on the highest mountain. Well, actually there is a minor risk of a new low but it shouldn’t be by too much…

The degree of the Dollar strength we have seen is actually stretching the limits of the fine balance between the lower degree and higher degree waves. It will probably not come as any surprise that, given there are only 10 days until the UK (according to my structural forecast from one year ago) votes “Leave”, the market is going to square up some positions. This will see a reversal - that should start over the next few days - will see some fairly substantial losses in the Dollar.

Strangely, even AUDUSD decided to partner with the Europeans although with less intensity. However, the structure is basically very similar to the Europeans in terms of an excessive degree of losses that will therefore require a deeper pullback.

This will leave us with the JPY pairs … This tends to promise less directional moves – or perhaps more aptly – a greater degree of swings but with less amplitude compared to the others. They are probably best left alone for the most part except when it comes to the key support & resistance areas implied from the structure. As long as you follow them carefully there should be room for modest short term trades.

Good trading

Ian Copsey