美元走势温和的一天

最近的交易情况很复杂--至少从结构上看是这样的。价格冲击关键位置，尝试解决这些类似数独般令人沮丧的问题…我从欧系货币对里发现些细节，总体倾向于提示美元今天呈现温和走势。仍然有一些更高级别难度的数独游戏在价格运行前方等候，但我觉得我们需要一步步来。

首先，美元蓄势突破4小时价格均衡云图。最初的尝试可能不会成功，但我怀疑，在昨日银行假期过后，欧洲和北美进入抗争模式，将会出现一些价格破位的运行表现。即便如此，我感觉从欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎的价格发展情况中推测美元将进一步靠近下方支撑，而英镑兑美元可能会试图进一步走高。事实上，这似乎也体现对英国最终将会选择留在欧盟的信心。

与此同时，澳元一直保持较稳定的震荡下行。我觉得价格上行空间有限，并且，更多的可能是，价格将会在今天稍后时间内回复下行走势。价格下方仍有一个较有说服力的目标点位，只要价格转向下行，将会触及到我所提及的下行目标。

至于日元货币对…美元兑日元呈现良好的走势表现，上周五价格拒绝进一步走低并在后半天时间内出现较强反弹—走势状况一直延续到昨天。首先，我们需要锁定目前价格下行的下方支撑—可能在4小时价格均衡云图。我们需要确保价格能在此位置得到支撑。欧元兑美元需要上行到更高点位，以避免欧元兑日元出现复杂的修正走势。可能稍后在美元兑日元的走势上能衔接起来…

今天看起来不像价格走势延续的一天，但应该会出现一些令人感觉较为舒心的交易机会…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A softer Dollar for today

Recent trading has been terribly complicated – at least in terms of the structures. Bashing the keys trying to resolve these Sudoku-like problems can be terribly frustrating… I’ve noted some observations in the Europeans that tend to suggest a softer Dollar today. There are still some higher degree Sudoku puzzles ready and waiting but I think we need to take them stage by stage.

Firstly, the Dollar is pssing to break through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds. The initial attempts may not succeed but I suspect that by the time Europe and North America enter the fray after yesterday’s bank holidays that we’ll see those breaks. Even then, I feel there are relatively close Dollar supports in EURUSD and USDCHF while GBPUSD may well have an attempt to push higher a little more strongly. Indeed, there appears to be quite some confidence that the Brexit referendum will keep the UK in the EU.

Meanwhile the Aussie has maintained a steady and relatively choppy decline. However, I don’t see a great deal of room on the upside and, more likely, we’ll see it resume losses over the course of the day. There is a quite convincing downside target so as long as we start to see a reversal lower, we’ll see the targets I have been suggesting.

As for the JPY pairs… USDJPY did a great job of refusing to correct too low on Friday and then saw it rally strongly over the second half of the day – and follow-through yesterday. First we need to establish support in the current decline – and probably at the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud. From there we need to ensure that this holds. What EURUSD needs to do is push higher to avoid a complicated correction in EURJPY. Perhaps later USDJPY can jointly assist…

It doesn’t look like a day of extensive moves but there should be a few opportunities for comfortable trades…

Good trading

Ian Copsey