有点无聊的价格波动-行情走势预测

昨天是美指下跌的一天。其背后并不是有较大的运行动能支撑，但其幅度不大的价格运行至少已令价格穿越4小时价格均衡云图。话虽如此，但也没有出现明显的破位情况，所以有种风险是云层起到一种黏滞效用，不停地吸引飞蛾回到云层处。我们应能看到后续的走势发展，但我不确定是否能触发价格明显的波动，特别是临近步入美国的长周末假期。

如果说行情发展过程中存有任何疑惑的话，那就是基于较大级别的结构中，在欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎的价格走势之间的相关性减弱—但这已经说明了一段时间内维持的价格运行模式。我可以肯定这种状况会延续一段时间。在3个欧系货币对中，只有英镑兑美元的表现最稳定。这不是最容易跟进走势的货币对，但目前看，它基本上是慢慢地，沿着自己的方式运行，相对于它即将过去的前一个价格结构模式来讲，却是一个相对明确的趋势运行。相比欧系货币对来讲，我仍然觉得英镑兑美元是一个重要的货币对，因为现在价格运行在结构中的不同部分，这或有助于分辨一般的价格反转点。

澳元兑美元展开的价格反抽幅度超出我预想。我怀疑这是我保守预期的原因，但现在似乎需要设定进一步目标。

日元货币对价格掉头回落，然后又重回支撑位上方，之后展开震荡走势。特别是，欧元兑日元价格出现了相当奇特的下行走势，这令我倒推前期走势，再次观察价格运行情况。这个“令人厌烦”的走势是一个非常深的价格反抽，并随后出现新的次低点，但没有什么建设性意义。似乎毫无疑问，美元兑日元将运行到较低点位，但最好可能是等待下一步走势发展情况来消除疑虑—或者不用等待—因为情况可能是…

今晚将会有耶伦的一些讲话。不确定这会不会带来实质性影响，但要小心—目前美国股市仍有些令人困惑的地方…

预祝拥有愉快的周末长假期。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Modest boring movement

A Dollar bearish day. Not that it had much momentum behind it, but modest progress at least that edged price across the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds. Having said that, there has been no significant break so there’s a risk of the Clouds acting like a sticky flytrap that will keep attracting moths back to the Clouds. We should see follow-through but I’m not too sure that it’s going to trigger a significant move, particularly as we’re going into a long U.S. weekend.

If there is any puzzle, it’s the slight disconnect between EURUSD and USDCHF in terms of the larger structure – but that has been a pattern of note for quite some while. I can certainly see that trend continuing. Out of the three Europeans it has been GBPUSD that has been most consistent. It’s not the easiest of pairs to follow but currently it’s basically plodding a long, marking its way but with a slightly better trending move compared to its soon to be ex-partner. I still feel it’s an important currency pair because it is in a different part of the structure compared to the Continentals and this could help identify common reversal points.

AUDUSD pulled back deeper than I had wanted. I suspect this was due to my conservative outlook but now appears set for a deeper target.

The JPY pairs whipped back down, then whipped back up and then became dizzy. In particular, EURJPY made a rather strange decline that has made me step back in order to observe. The “offending” action was a very deep pullback and followed by a minor new low but didn’t look constructive. There seems no doubt that USDJPY will move lower but it is probably better to let the next move develop to confirm my suspicions – or not – as the case may be…

A bit of blurb from Meddlin’ Yellen tonight. Not sure it’ll be of any substance but watch out – we do have a puzzle in the U.S. equities…

Have a great long weekend

Ian Copsey