市场行情走势预测

悬崖边上挣扎......

昨天研究了几个货币对的运行情况—特别是欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎，两者相对美元的走强而出现下行走势。欧元兑美元暂时受到较强支撑，但结合另外的条件考虑，需要观察多时间框架的下行动能变化。价格的运行变化还没出现，但走势缺乏稳定性。与美元兑瑞士法郎的情况有些类似，但这个货币对是货币对范围内运行得最为艰辛的，其行程中总出现小幅整理走势，缺乏修正和较深度的浪b/v修复—我甚至尝试以5浪或者3浪的运行方式来作分析…

从这个角度上看，我觉得需要谨慎看待。我倾向于先观望，等待美元下行走势的确认信息出现—或者价格运行破位。我观察欧元兑美元自1.0710点位开始形成的结构，并发现有一个引导价格运行到1.3993高位的冗长结构—这与两年前的一个从1.2744低点形成的结构非常类似—这个异常的结构在浪ii和浪iv出现两个较深的修正。这种走势情况可能是发生在复杂的修正走势中……

英镑兑美元走势表现良好。这是我另外一个偏向看跌美元的因素，但如前述，这需要有信号确认。

这也是另外一个令我对美元看涨想法有所保留的原因，从目前盘面运行情况来看，怀疑美元兑日元自105.54低位开始，已经走出了第一阶段的高点或略高的点位。从欧元兑日元的横向整理情况来看，明显不会出现任何推动走势—较低级别的简单推动形式除外。当价格突破运行区间时，这或能提供有效的支撑点位。

总体来讲，美元4小时价格均衡云图以及动能情况仍提示看涨倾向，并开始有逐步增强意味—但还没得到完全证实，这似乎更多地取决于今天的行情发展…

祝周末愉快。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Teetering on the brink…

I worked through several of the currency pairs yesterday – particularly EURUSD and USDCHF. Both suffered losses against the strong Dollar. The EURUSD support that I felt important broke but with the added stipulation that we had to see multiple time frame bearish momentum. Well, that didn’t happen but it’s still not stable. There is a similar likeness in USDCHF but this pair has been just about the toughest of all, littered with shallow corrections, lack of correlation and also a lack of deep Wave b / v’s that could compensate – even if I try and work this as a 5-wave move or 3-wave…

From that perspective I remain cautious. My pference is to hold off and wait for confirmation of a resumption to the Dollar downside – or a complete breakdown. I was looking at the EURUSD structure from 1.0710 and saw that it was a very similar clunky structure that led up to the 1.3993 high 2 years ago – from the 1.2744 low - that unusually had two deep corrections in the Wave ii and Wave iv. This can occur in complicated complex corrections.

I have noted that GBPUSD actually seemed to perform well. This is another factor in my pference for Dollar losses to develop but as I mentioned, I need confirmation. This is also another factor of not committing to a Dollar bullish outcome at this point and is doubled by the fact that USDJPY has either seen its first high from 105.54 or a mild risk of a minor new high. Given the sideways development in EURJPY it’s clear that we’re not seeing any impulsive development going on – except in the lower degrees. This could provide supporting information when this range breaks.

As an overview, we still have Dollar bullish 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds and momentum that is beginning to pick up – but not quite confirmed. It would seem that much depends on today’s development…

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey