一些模棱两可的价格结构--行情走势预测

昨天的价格走势发展相当艰难。大部分货币对都在与小时级别和4小时级别的价格均衡云图抗争，几乎整天时间都是在尝试突破与阻止突破之间作战。最后以云图横向整理运行并伴随轻微破位的状况结束了当天行情—不过这些情况都还不足以触发后续走势的展开。但出现了一些影响这种状况持续发展的风险，特别是在今天的亚盘时段，突破云层压制的几率更大了。

在所有货币对当中，英镑兑美元率先缓步上行并成功突破4小时云图的压制，后续展开进一步上涨。很可能的是，在今天开始进一步发展之前，价格的任何修正走势将维持在云层上方。另一个货币对欧元兑日元也成功冲破压制，虽然价格在此点位的走势并不属于推动阶段，并同时在1小时和4小时级别云图附近区间维持震荡，所以更多的可能是价格处于震荡下行的修正阶段。

另外，从今天行情的展开情况来看，仍有些琐碎的问题出现，伴随价格呈现循环走势的风险，但随后出现反转。价格运行触及到一些关键点位，相应的走势将会被触发，因此我们需要灵活地看待可能的备选方案。但总体来看，我感觉用不了多久，我们将会看到一些更有方向性的价格运行。

即便是澳元，其价格走势发展也具有这种双重性。昨日价格出现了不错的反弹，并触及到了最低的预期目标，但从价格结构情况来看，仍保留双向发展的可能选项。一个将会是出现相对简单直接的修正走势，而另一个将可能是出现复杂的修正走势，这需要更长的运行发展时间。再次，价格的运行情况意味着我们需要抓紧跟进价格发展情况，并清楚了解其中特殊情况的发展…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Some ambiguous structures

That was quite a difficult day. In the majority of the pairs, price was battling with the hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that fought a long battle over the day to try and pvent price making a breach. For these pairs the battle ended the day with the Clouds moving sideways with minor breaches – but not enough to trigger follow-through. While there are a few risks of this continuing, particularly in the Asian session, the chance for a break away from these Clouds is much stronger today.

Out of all the pairs, it was GBPUSD that first managed to wriggle itself free from the 4-hour Cloud and make further gains. Quite likely, any correction will hold above/within the Cloud before extending the move it began yesterday. The other pair that managed to break through was EURJPY although it isn’t in an impulsive phase at this point and given the swings around both hourly & 4-hour Clouds, more likely this is down to mere oscillation in a corrective phase.

Otherwise, as we begin today, there are some minor niggling issues that have risk of recycling but then reversal. It’s touch and go which will occur and therefore we’re going to need to be flexible to work with the alternatives. However, overall I do feel that we’ll see some more directional moves developing before long.

Even the Aussie has this duality. It rallied well yesterday and to the minimum target but in a structure that retains options on both sides of the market. One will be a more direct completion of the correction while the other could be a complex correction that will take longer to develop. Once again, this means we need to be fleet of foot and understand the particular outcomes that develop…

Good trading