市场行情走势预测

慢，慢 - 快 - 慢，慢...

对于美元指数昨天出现下跌幅度有限的情况并不感到奇怪。大多数情况下，美元兑瑞士法郎的整体价格运行倾向于与4小时的价格均衡云图抗争—很神奇—价格能维持美元的上行预期，虽然是个令人痛苦的缓慢进展过程。4小时云图状况形成阻力区间，应能维持前半天，但我怀疑后半天的时间里，价格运行将出现再次测试云层阻力的情况，我们需要关注价格能否成功突破压制。

其他的一切预期如常，所有的货币对的价格形态结构发展良好。昨天曾出现一些突破现象，但后续的走势发展应该是符合预期的，英国退欧公投，将会是价格缓慢发展的一个主要原因，这与过去1-2个月的情况相类似。似乎，最可能的是，6月23日的投票将会触发价格的趋势发展—但估计很难有出人意料的情况出现……

就剩下美元兑日元可以考虑操作了。对此货币对我感到有点沮丧。行情走势看起来似乎仍有上行的风险，但应该是相对有限的，因此价格会延续下行到更低点位并应能令欧元兑日元在本周剩下的时间内维持修正走势。所以，当逐渐靠近周末的时候，需要更多地关注美元兑日元的走势情况。

最后，澳元的反弹走势完美符合预期—触及下行目标仅2个点上方的位置。该货币对也受其4小时价格均衡云图压制，昨日价格随后从高点回落。不过，用不了多久，价格将会突破压制站上云端，展开进一步上行。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Slow, slow – quick – slow, slow…

It was no surprise to see limited losses in the Dollar yesterday. For the most part, prices tended to battle with the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds throughout the pairs I cover with the exception of USDCHF that – almost miraculously – managed to maintain the Dollar upside even if it was a painfully slow process. The barrier, formed by the 4-hour Clouds, should hold for the first half of the day but I suspect by the second half there should be a retest of the Clouds and that’s when we need to observe whether breaks are seen.

As things stand as they are, all the pairs appear to be developing quite well. Once we have gotten past yesterday’s limits the follow-through should be quite healthy although, given the Brexit referendum, there will be a general slowness to the development rather similar to the past 1-2 months. It seems, most likely, that it will be the 23rd June vote that will trigger the next trend – but that’s hardly a surprise…

This leaves us playing with USDJPY. I have been a little frustrated with this pair. It does seem to still have some upside risk but should be limited and therefore will be subject to a move lower that should keep EURJPY held in a corrective phase for the rest of the week. Therefore, much focus needs to be applied to USDJPY as we move into the weekend.

Finally, the Aussie recovered perfectly – from just 2 points above my downside target. This pair was also restricted by its 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud and has drifted back from yesterday’s high. However, this should – before long – manage to battle itself back above the Cloud to provide for further gains.

Good trading

Ian Copsey