行情分流导引—市场走势预测

非农数据的总体表现情况符合预期。数据的公布确实引起了货币对的一系列反应。事实上，行情确实是很具吸引力，欧元兑美元出现了与预期完美契合的走势发展，价格震荡上行之后，反向运行到日内低点，而其他两个欧系货币对的走势反应则显得相对温和，意味着今天需要更多关注相关价格走势的发展。英镑兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎的走势运行在多空阻力范围之间。价格走势突破结果的含义应该是今天的关注焦点。事实上在今天开盘后，这3个货币对出现了较小下行差距的有趣现象。除了这3个货币对，欧元兑美元有比较清晰的结构，因此应能充当较好的前驱角色。

澳元在上周五的运行表现令我有所动摇，原本是选择等待非农数据公布的状态，但随后却过早地出现跌势延续。甚至在今天早上开盘后再进一步下行，在研判价格延续下跌之前，最好是等待价格出现回调，但不要过分期待今天会出现同类级别的下行走势…

至于日元货币对—总体走势表现稳定，但不够强劲。但美元兑日元的下行走势令人鼓舞。价格的运行状况未足以修补预期缺口，需要持续关注其运行发展情况。我感觉价格会延续前期自4月28日破位下行的路径，之后的任何可能性下跌，势头将会有所减缓。鉴于前期的破位下行表现情况，目前价格运行发展中仍有些不确定性，但我正寻求其中的时间节点，这往往意味着将出现更长时期的横向整理走势，只要出现105.54以下的价格新低，欧元兑日元将可能出现小幅下跌，但需要关注欧元兑美元恢复上行走势的关键时间节点…

总体来讲，行情发展大致与预期相符，但过程中仍有结构被破坏的风险。因此，目前维持短线操作为主。

预祝拥有获利丰厚的交易周。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Diversion navigated

The NFP performed well - for the most part. It certainly generated a range of reactions across the currency pairs. In fact, it was quite fascinating to see the perfect swing higher in EURUSD and the reversal back lower – exactly as expected - while in the other two Europeans the reaction was more muted and this is where some care is going to be required today. GBPUSD and USDCHF are running fine lines between bullish & bearish. This should be a focus for today and what the outcome of breaks may imply. It’s actually interesting that all three pairs actually saw (minor) gaps lower on today’s open. Out of these three, EURUSD has the stronger structure and therefore should be the better vehicle.

I wavered in the Aussie on Friday, pferring to wait for the NFP to be released but it was too impatient and just extended losses. Even this pair also gapped lower this morning but it’ll probably be better to wait for a pullback before it can extend those losses but don’t expect the same degree of movement on the downside today…

As for the JPY pairs – steady but not robust. However, it is encouraging to see losses in USDJPY in particular. It hasn’t done enough to seal the outcome I have hoped for but let’s see how this develops. I feel that, following the promise of a downside rout following the collapse on the 28th April, the rest of any possible losses are going to be less aggressive. It does still have a slight uncertainty due to that collapse but I am working around a time event at this time and this tends to suggest longer sideways move as long as we get to a new low below 105.54. This could see EURJPY edging lower but we’ll have to be mindful of a crunch time when EURUSD reverts to the upside…

Overall, things appear to be going to plan for the most part but there’s still some risk of being scuppered. Thus, keep things short term for now.

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey