市场波动--行情走势预测

行情走势发展将不会有什么惊喜之处出现吧？！是这样吗？今天是非农日…市场将会出现12个小时的枯燥无聊行情，然后出现大概10分钟左右的骚动。我总在最近这几天里寻找价格形态，以契合之前预期的运行结构。伴随过多的价格重叠，短暂穿刺式波动的运行状况出现，最近的价格运行结构显得很复杂，较难确定哪些短暂穿刺式波动是重要的价格运行行为。

同样地，在较大级别的结构里，感觉在价格反转区内能提供趋势性运行指引。值得庆幸的是，延续昨日美元走强的状况，可以持续关注之前提示的价格区域。很明显，接下来的行情发展显得很重要，价格需要在这些潜在反转区域进一步发展，以接近合适的投影比例，今天的行情表现似乎有一定可行性。

昨日英镑兑美元走势维稳，逆欧系货币的发展方向，转头略向上并似乎决定无所作为，这也是对我昨天所拟定的调整结构最理想的反应。但仍存在潜在风险，应该是非农数据公布之后，价格才能走出明确方向，然后将会跟随欧系货币对的发展步调。

同样地，澳元昨天的走势发展也是懒洋洋的状态，价格窄幅波动，以便消化非农数据公布的影响。价格的发展更多地取决于在接下来的10-12个小时内的运行情况。价格自0.7718下跌，欠缺一定程度的修正，增加了潜在的复杂性，不好明确浪i浪ii的位置。没有明确浪i浪ii，就没有合适的方式来明确后续的浪iii浪iv…但是，在更大级别的结构里，确实有指示主要的价格发展方向…

美元兑日元昨天休息了一整天。毕竟这是黄金周的最后一天了。从这一点上看，价格走势发展并没有真正改变。我有设定关键支撑区域，并有其他备选突破区域。如参照欧元兑美元的走势预期来看，也能推测出欧元兑日元的预期走势方向。交叉货币对在上升与下行之间展现了很好的平衡，

这个平衡很重要…

最好等待非农数据公布后，价格运行趋于平稳后，注意是否有关键点位被突破，然后关注目标区间内那些契合预期发展的价格运行情况，相信对于结果的发展将会有更明确的想法。

祝周末愉快。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Volatility

It won’t be a surprise, will it? It’s NFP day… 12 hours of numbing boredom and 10 minutes of bedlam day. I always approach these days looking for a pattern that will fit within the structures I have. Recently, I have found the structures really complicated with too many overlaps and minor blips that make it difficult to be certain of which minor blip was the most important. Equally, given the larger wave degree structure, we can get a sense of reversal areas that can provide the next trending move. Thankfully, following yesterday’s Dollar strength in the Continental Europeans, we are looking at the areas I have been suggesting. Obviously, it’s going to be important that these potential reversal areas need to be approached with the right projection ratios, but it’s looking doable today.

That GBPUSD turned up its nose to the Continentals and decided to take a sleepy day off instead, was a perfect response also to the adjustment I made yesterday in the structure. It could still be under risk, but should the NFP release provide the right outcome it will work well with the Continentals.

Equally, the Aussie had a languid day of shallow swings that should be able to absorb the impact of the NFP release. Much will depend on how it moves over the next 10-12 hours. That the sudden drop from 0.7718 lacked any decent corrections adds to potential complications when the identification of the Wave i and Wave ii was impossible. Without those there is no real way to identify the subsequent Wave iii and Wave iv… However, the larger degree structure does have a main direction…

USDJPY had a day off. After all, it was the last day of Golden Week. Nothing has really changed at this point. I have the key areas that need to hold and the alternatives should that area break. If I look at the expectations in EURUSD post release, we also have an idea of where EURJPY will go. The cross is finely balanced between upside and down so this balance will be crucial…

Best wait for the gyrations following the NFP release and note whether one scenario has broken or not and then watch for the most appropriate outcome from the areas I’ll provide that will give a stronger idea to the outcome.

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey