混乱的价格结构形态--行情走势预测

预期美元会出现下跌走势但还不能说准确锁定了投影目标。货币对的走势似乎并没有出现胶着状态或者走势一致的情况。因此，一般来讲出现的修正走势都会不太合拍，基于价格运行的一致大方向考虑，混乱的状况或会引起一些明显的冲突走势情况出现。从昨日的行情走势发展情况来看，后续仍有发展空间，但令我困扰的是缺乏普遍一致的修正。

首先，价格的总体运行趋势意味着行情需要出现各种修正情况出现，并尝试引领队伍重回更加统一的前景预期里。因此，欧系货币对后市或会出现类似的轻微走势迹象，我怀疑价格会出现一些修正情况。特别是，英镑兑美元，其走势情况似乎落入了蜘蛛网内，提示价格运行的再循环出现—或者更复杂的修正结构形态出现。这往往与欧元兑美元的价格发展情况相配合—但美元兑瑞士法郎的契合度会稍欠清晰，或会以其自我独特的方式运行。

澳元可能就是货币对范围里，价格运行发展得较好的一个。价格运行自0.7548低位开始，创出了小新高，价格运行幅度令人感到有点难以置信。无论如何，价格已经站上了小时级别和4小时级别的价格均衡云图上方，并应会持续走高，但我怀疑价格运行已经处于某些阶段了。

最后，日系货币对中，欧元兑日元走势发展已取得了我所预期的初步效果，但价格运行仍需要延续反弹或者下行陷入震荡整固走势。交叉货币对走势发展的关键导向因子日元，除了走出一个价格小新低和小新高之外，花了一天的时间无所作为。这令走势发展出现了可上可下的双项选择，所以最好等待价格的破位情况出现…

最后出来的日元对，欧元兑日元做我所希望的初步成果，但仍需要反弹或暴跌延伸到横盘整理。该交的“母亲”花了一天忙碌的除了一个小新低点和次新高无所事事。它的叶子都上涨和下跌选项休息所以最好等待...

我感觉总体上今天的行情发展幅度相当有限…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Muddled structures

I had expected Dollar losses but I can’t say that I nailed the projection targets. It was also clear that the range of currency pairs did not seem to have gelled or moved with consistency. Thus, the usual correlation was off key, garbled and that has generated some apparent conflicts in terms of a consistent directional move. There is room for follow-through from yesterday but what bothers me is the lack of general correlation.

Firstly, this tends to suggest that we need a correction of sorts to try and bring the group back into a more uniform outlook. Therefore, while there could be minor follow-through early into Europe, I suspect we shall see some corrective behaviour. In particular, GBPUSD appears to have got itself entangled in a spider web that appears to suggest a recycling – or a more complex corrective pattern. This tends to match with EURUSD – but USDCHF is less clear or will make its own way in the world.

The Aussie was probably one of the better pairs. It has made a minor new high from the 0.7548 low but hasn’t really convinced that much. Nevertheless, price has moved above both hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds and should continue higher but I suspect in stages.

Finally, out of the JPY pairs, EURJPY made the tentative gains I had hoped for but still needs to extend the rally or slump into a sideways consolidation. The “mother” of the cross spent a day busy doing nothing apart from a minor new low and a minor new high. It leaves both upside and downside options so best wait for a break…

I sense a limited range day on the whole…

Good trading

Ian Copsey