市场运行渐趋平静--行情走势预测

昨天美元兑日元的运行情况，是以1个点之差上破前期高点111.86，随后直接展开断崖式下跌。价格如蹦极跳般的快速下跌，以至于都还没来得及去关注双顶形态的出现。然而，当下的价格低点已在之前的走势行情里出现过—或许再轻微下破---允许价格在今天接下来的时间里出现轻微反弹。当然，这行情表现意味着黄金周的开始—我对这几天的价格突破运行情况感到满意—因此市场的运行会在接下来几天里逐步放缓，或者以更慢的速度运行发展。欧元兑日元的运行情况明显受美元兑日元所牵动，结合欧元兑美元出现的预期上行情况，几乎也呈现出令人惊喜的走势状况，后续价格运行或会延续原来的路径。

欧系货币走势起伏不定，怀疑会出现一定程度的加速运行—但不会太多—以维持美元的下行走势步入周末和周一，进入5月的时间周期。在经过过去一年的日内横向整固走势后，接下来的2-3周的时间里，行情发展会变得更有趣些。股票市场也会出现类似信号，并且我个人感觉在总体市场的大环境下，还需要锻炼一下我们的耐心。

澳元几天前的快速下跌已基本打住，运行情况基本符合预期，之后应会呈现向上的运行走势，但走势会比较反复。可能最好的方式是观察当下的价格运行情况并等待合适的时机入场。澳元的修正走势或会比较迅猛…

采取稳健而淡定的交易方式，因为很快就要步入周末了。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Calming down…

The story of yesterday was the 1-point break above the prior 111.86 high and a walk off the cliff face. As it dropped it didn’t even have time to notice that there was a double top as the bungee rope uncoiled. However, we should have seen the current low – or maybe a minor breach – to allow the rest of the day to urge it gently higher. Of course, it’s the start of Golden Week – of which I have pleasant memories of a few days break – and therefore the market here should slow down over the next few days and probably a bit more. That EURJPY was obviously dragged down with USDJPY can hardly be a surprise with EURUSD expected to make upward headway, we are likely to see the cross recover along the way.

The Europeans have seen some choppy behaviour but I suspect a degree of acceleration – not too much – to maintain the Dollar downside as we go into the weekend and on Monday come out into May. These next 2-3 weeks are going to be interesting following the past year’s sideways daily consolidation. The signs are that in the equity markets also and I feel we’ll need to exercise some patience within the general market overall.

The Aussie’s sharp losses over the past couple of days have stalled as expected and should make upward headway but in a rather erratic manner. It’s probably best to just observe for now and wait for the right moment to re-enter the market. In corrections the Aussie can be brutal…

Steady but slow trading as we go into the weekend.

Good trading

Ian Copsey