困惑和冲突相结合—行情走势预测

在欧系货币出现进一步反转之前，我有关注美元出现小新高的可能走势情况—但昨天美元指数却出现直接下跌走势…同时，美元兑日元一度下探到110.66—仅距离理想回撤支撑位2个点上方的位置。欧元兑美元和美元兑日元的强劲走势的综合表现，带动了欧元兑日元往更高位运行，并触及了上方我所关注的目标区域。或可能出现的冲突情况是，美元兑日元和欧元兑美元同时出现上涨，这会带动交叉货币对往更高点位运行…这是我不想看到的状况。如果说在预期计算中存在任何薄弱的环节，那么就可能是在美元兑日元方面，该货币对形成了较难追踪进展的价格结构。因此，留意其他可能的发展选项。

欧系货币的运行情况，看起来似乎都符合预期的运行轨道。欧元兑美元走势情况中某个结构组成部分确实存在疑问，但在美元兑瑞士法郎上却相对清晰。从更大级别的浪型看，仍有一些运行空间，但各自结构之间有些差异，基于修正走势中的相关比率，这些差异往往会被逐步消除。个人认为今天的价格运行情况显得比较重要，留意各货币对的走势发展，其走势会否与潜在结构的情况相冲突。如冲突情况加剧，最好保持镇定并等待结构平衡的再次出现。

在这些冲突走势情况中，发现英镑兑美元的走势与其他欧系货币对的走势情况不太相符。英镑反弹到更高的投影目标，但这往往也提示了行情需要更深度的回调。这或会是由于欧元兑英镑需要一个相应较强的往上运行的修正。因此，近期走势反弹后的发展结果是需要价格的下跌配合。

澳元进一步上行，但上行幅度还不足以确定昨日的行情会进一步延展。在当下价格运行的位置，出现两个可能发展选项—很明显，一个是看涨，而另一个是看跌---两个选项的生效都在等待进一步的走势确认。

所以，总体来讲，今天的行情可能会出现复杂走势。务必进行稳健的交易操作…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Puzzles and conflicts

Hmmm… I had my eye on minor new Dollar highs in the Continentals before the reversal – but yesterday saw direct losses… At the same time, USDJPY dipped down to 110.66 – 2 points above an ideal retracement support. The combination of strength in both EURUSD and USDJPY dragged EURJPY higher and to a target area I had been looking for. The conflict is that it would appear that both USDJPY and EURUSD are bullish which will drag the cross higher… and that’s something I hadn’t wanted. If there is any weakness in my count, then it’s more likely to be in USDJPY that has been a difficult structure to track. Therefore, watch out for this possible alternative.

When looking at the Continental Europeans it looks as if everything is on track. EURUSD did have a question mark over one part of the structure but USDCHF is quite clear. In the larger wave degrees, there is still some way to go but there are subtle differences in their individual structures but which tend to work through because of the relatively correlated ratios in the corrections. I think it’s going to be important today to be aware of how each pair is developing and whether they conflict with what’s happening within the underlying picture. If a conflict arises it will be better to remain square and wait for the structures to balance out again.

Within these conflicts I can see GBPUSD being contrary to the Continental Europeans. The Pound rallied to the higher projection targets but tends to suggest that we need a deeper pullback lower. That tends to be likely because EURGBP does require a relatively strong correction higher. Thus, the outcome from the recent rally does need losses to develop.

The Aussie made further gains but not quite enough to be certain of extending yesterday’s rally. At this point there are two options – clearly one bullish and one bearish – both can be valid but wait for confirmation.

So, it looks like a complicated day overall. Make sure that solid trade set ups develop…

Good trading

Ian Copsey