漫长而曲折的价格运行道路—行情走势预测

…市场的运行发展至今没有走太远…有时我在想，在令人抓狂的，毫无意义的蜿蜒走势行情当中，市场是如何打发这些空档时间的，总体来看还是维持基本的价格结构范围内。然而，回顾昨日的行情走势，欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎的价格运行几乎要触及4小时价格均衡云图，理论上应会出现压制区间，以便美元恢复上行走势—毫无疑问，这是个非常，非常…非常缓慢的发展过程。

英镑兑美元成功突破1.4513后，触发了另一个可能的整固走势出现。价格也可能会展开进一步上行，怀疑走势会持续一周或超过一周的时间，之后预期价格会重回今天的水平。因此，基本确定价格将可能保持一段时间的缓慢震荡运行走势—我怀疑会持续2-4周的时间。

澳元的走势看起来几乎没有太大变化。昨天的价格运行创出小新低—价格会有进一步下行的风险-除了仍会持续一段时间的盘整走势之外，价格整体的上行走势应会继续保持。过程中最痛苦的是，较慢的价格发展进程令人昏昏欲睡…

美元兑日元，昨日的走势已经触及了目标区间。不排除价格会进一步下跌，现在价格运行已来到了多空分水岭的关键位置。我留意到欧元兑日元也正位于需要进一步的上行推动的点位，否则价格走势将重回旧路。这些情况我也在昨天的报告中提及了。因此，关注欧元兑美元和美元兑日元走势之间的平衡情况，并留意双方的价格运行压制位。可能会有些棘手的情况出现,除非出现了明确的价格破位…

似乎今天又是另外一个走势缓慢的一天…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

The long and winding road

… which so far hasn’t got us very far… Sometimes I wonder how the market can utilise empty

space with such maddening, meaningless meandering, yet maintaining an underlying structure. However, yesterday’s backtracking has merely been met by the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds in EURUSD and USDCHF that should maintain a barrier to allow the Dollar upside to resume – and no doubt very, very and err… very slowly…

That GBPUSD managed to break above 1.4513 has generated an alternative to the consolidation. Having said that, while there could be some further upside, I doubt it will be by much and over the coming week or so I suspect we’ll be back below today’s levels. Thus, we can remained assured that there will likely still be ratcheting swings for some while to come – I suspect for 2-4 weeks.

The Aussie looks ptty much the same. While it made minor new lows yesterday – and there’s even risk of further minor lows – the upside should resume but expect the broad swings continue for some while. What has been most painful is the slow development that has me falling asleep in front of the screen…

USDJPY hit targets yesterday. I can’t rule out further losses but there’s now a fine line between bullish and bearish. I note that EURJPY is at a point where it needs to follow-through higher

else suffer relapse. This was the point I mentioned in yesterday’s report. Thus, watch the

balance between EURUSD and USDJPY and be aware of the limits on both sides of the market. This could be a bit tricky unless a clear break is seen…

It looks like another slow day…

Good trading

Ian Copsey