市场震荡运行—行情走势预测

市场决定不打乱欧系货币对的深度回调走势，并跟随其运行步调。这应该是今天行情走势发展的主题，但我怀疑其运行会持续更长时间…除非市场转换慢动作模式。这些情况或会可能触及2周前设定的目标区域。这会引起某程度的震荡整固走势发展，但基本上从稍大一些级别的框架来看，仍是美元看跌的基调。更重要的是，可能将会有重复的情况出现—某些程度的延展，但以结构较为简单的走势步入5月的时光。

昨日对英镑兑美元进行分析，对初期的分析情况略感惊讶，意识到完整的修正走势应该是怎么样的。其震荡走势或会延续，但早上价格运行上触1.4458高位的表现令人觉得意外—坦白说走势看起来不符合逻辑。价格结构被打破后我制定了另外一个替换方案，但需要下一个价格破位表现来印证…

澳元延续下跌的走势情况符合预期。价格仍会出现进一步下行但似乎下方可操作空间不大。谨慎看待行情的发展…

至于美元兑日元…延续一个更大级别的，稳定的盘整区间走势，价格震荡运行创出过去两周以来的新高，其背后有因素助推价格加速反弹。这明显带动了欧元兑日元的同步运行。似乎有更多的价格发展空间，但周末或只允许其背后推动因素稍微有些喘息机会，意味着在展开下一步运行之前将出现较为深度的反抽。欧元兑日元，美元兑日元和欧元兑美元之间的平衡，将保持良好，但或能提供一些价格运行的线索。因此，不要期待出现一个完全重复的周五行情…

预祝拥有获利丰厚的交易周。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Hip-hop Swingers

The market decided not to bother with a deeper correction in the Europeans and just to follow-through. This should be the main theme for today but I doubt it will last for too long… unless the market goes into slow motion. These two look like reaching the targets I set around 2 weeks ago. This has generated a kinda swinging consolidation but still basically Dollar bearish when looking at the larger picture. What’s more, we’re probably going to see a repeat – to a certain extent but just shallower later on into May.

I worked through the analysis  in GBPUSD yesterday and, while initially surprised, I realised I had found what should have been a completed correction. The swings may well continue here but this morning’s break above 1.4458 has come as a surprise – and frankly doesn’t look logical. Having seen the structure break down I have provided an alternative but this needs to be ratified by the next break levels… 

The Aussie extended losses as expected. It can still see more of the downside but appears to have limited room for manoeuvre. Watch out for that…

As for USDJPY… well, following a largely steady swing higher over the past two weeks, someone pushed a stake up its backside that accelerated the recovery. This obviously dragged EURJPY along with it. There appears to be room for more of this but the weekend allowed the sore backside to take a rest and it suggests a slightly deeper pullback before making the next step. The balance between EURJPY, USDJPY and EURUSD is going to be fine dance but could provide us with some clues. Therefore, don’t expect an exact repeat of Friday…

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey