市场出现脱节运行情况--行情走势预测

可以肯定的是，根据市场时不时出现的脱节走势情况来制定有意义的市场预期是有难度的。欧元兑美元后续预期目标点位落空，价格勉强创出一个略高点之后出现下行走势。欧元兑美元的下跌

走势情况属于预期范围，但下行启动点位与预期点位有差异。因此，美元兑瑞士法郎出现明显反弹走势。我正准备放弃上周拟定的上行目标区间，但从目前情况看来，价格运行或会进一步触及该目标区间…这些货币对将出现一些剧烈的震荡走势并且这种状况会持续一段时间。

受益于大不列颠堡的舒缓，英镑袖手旁观其他欧系货币的相对震荡运行走势，并没有加入组成3人行阵营。反而，价格走势平稳并且今天极有可能继续维持横向运行。这应会触发价格的进一步下跌。这听上去好像不错，下行走势只会持续一会，但今天的下行极限点位是出现在价格回抽之后。从这一点上看，还没有出现比较明确的目标点位…

澳元的下行走势符合预期，但实际上出现比我想象更多的限制。今天应会出现下行和上行走势—并按照这个顺序出现。

行情走势情况超出了预期范围，美元兑日元并没有如愿发展，价格应会延续上行，并带动欧元兑日元跟随波动—并可能是比较大幅度的波动，如欧元兑美元能展现相对较强的向上动能。问题的存在和潜在的限制因素事实上就是欧元兑美元需要形成一些基础浪。目前暂时不确定是否展开快速运行还是展开横向的复杂修正走势。总体来讲，美元兑日元和欧元兑日元的价格运行仍有上行空间—其走势更关乎影响修正幅度的大小。

所有情况发展似乎都井然有序—但我们观察市场已经有一段时间了—市场需要时间去激发启动…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Disjointed

It has sure been difficult to generate meaningful forecasts with the market appearing disjointed at times. The follow-through to an estimated target in EURUSD failed completely, managing just a minor new high and just dropped. I had expected that drop – but not from where I expected. Thus, USDCHF obviously rallied. I had just about given up on an upside target I was suggesting last week. Now it looks like reaching it… These pairs are seeing some wild swings and this may well continue.

From the comfort of Fort Britain, the Pound watched its European swinging counterparts but decided not to join a ménage à trois. Instead, it set down a table and decided to camp for most of the day in a sideways move. That should trigger a fall-out to the downside. This may sound good and it will be only for a while, but there is a downside limit for today followed by a pullback. At this point in time the problem is that there are no real clear targets…

The Aussie saw losses as expected, but actually more limited than I had imagined. Today should see both losses and gains – and in that order.

That brings us over to my neck of the woods with USDJPY not quite developing as I hoped but should still extend gains that should drag up EURJPY behind it – and may well be quite robust if EURUSD can muster up some energy. The question and potential limiting factor is the fact that EURUSD needs to form some foundation waves. Whether this is quick or decided to have a sideways complex correction is the unknown. Overall, it should still see upside progress in both USDJPY and EURJPY – it’s more a matter of the length of corrections.

Everything seems to be in order – but as we’ve seen in this market for some while – it can take time to stoke up the engine…

Good trading

Ian Copsey