美元走势的几率偏向—市场行情预测

上周五的走势情况确实有点棘手。我曾希望美元能持续上行但也知道在最坏的情况下也有回落的空间，美元重回更加弱势的状态。市场似乎已经试探了这个潜在可能情况，或许是为了避免做出更明确的意向表述，然而，其中有一个货币对的发展情况或能提示更加明朗的下一步走势会否是看涨美元—这就是英镑兑美元。我或许也会参考美元兑瑞士法郎的走势情况，该货币对逆反美元的下跌趋势运行，甚至创出5个点差距的新高。

因此，本周开篇应会先以美元看涨的一天展开，并应能最终运行到我上周预期的目标区域。

这可能对澳元兑美元的走势带来帮助，如上周五所述，该货币对的走势超出了结构预期范围令我颇感意外—价格反弹到0.7736点位，这是距离我的预期潜在目标相差一个点的位置。周五的横向震荡整理走势并未能引起任何决定性的破位行情出现，但只要延续美元预期走强的方向，其运行情况会逐步往我的首选预期靠拢。但是，仍有些有待解答的问题，因此仍存在不确定因素。

我在日元货币对上遇到些阻碍，但并不算严重，并且我意识到了自己在其结构上的失误点，一个在美元兑日元上比较常见的，略大一点级别的延展回撤因素。这有助于欧元兑日元展开进一步下行，但未能运行到122.53低点。这应会引发关系其中的货币对上涨，意味着美元兑日元的走势将领先欧元兑美元…

市场仍处于平静期，所以最好是保持短期的预期展望。

预祝拥有获利丰厚的交易周。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Odds favour the Dollar

Indeed, Friday was a little tricky. I had hoped for Dollar gains but knowing there was room for a pullback and in the worst scenario, a return to a much weaker Dollar. The market appears to have probed this potential, perhaps to avoid actually making a more decisive statement of intent. However, across the pairs there was one pair that probably made it clear that the next move had to be Dollar bullish – and that was GBPUSD. I could perhaps also add USDCHF that bucked the Dollar bearish trend and even made a new high by 5 points.

Thus, we should begin the week with a Dollar bullish day that should go on to eventually meet the target areas I set last week.

This may help out with AUDUSD that, as I described on Friday, gave me a strange surprise that I hadn’t expected due to the structure – the rally to 0.7736 was one point from a potential target I had identified. Friday’s neutral sideways move failed to generate any decisive break but as long as it follows the expected Dollar strength would tend to suit my pference. However, there remains some questions that have been left unanswered and therefore the air of uncertainty remains.

In the JPY pairs I suffered a set back, but nothing too serious and I identified my error in the structure, a factor of a mildly larger expansion-retracement that I normally see in USDJPY. This helped EURJPY to extend losses but failing to reach the 122.53 low. This should trigger gains in the cross that implies that USDJPY will outpace EURUSD…

The market is still in a lull period so best retain a short-term outlook.

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey