潜在复杂走势的一天—市场行情预测

美元指数昨天的上涨幅度符合预期。欧元兑美元的走势也触及了目标区间的中部位置，但美元兑瑞士法郎却未能到达我所希望到达的目标点位。目前行情发展正处于面临选择方向的阶段—一个是有限运行空间的方向，而另一个是有更大运行空间，某程度更倾向于趋势的发展方向。（最近没有特别多的趋势走势…）这或可能适合亚盘交易时段保持不温不火的走势情况，一直持续到欧盘交易时段开始。因此，我们需要保持小心谨慎一段时间，或许从周末的市场情况能感受到交易员的生活气息。

即使是其他的欧系货币，英镑兑美元，价格也出现下跌，随后出现反抽。这与欧洲大陆现在

有两个选择方向的状况相吻合。毫无疑问，这将会持续到欧盘交易时段开始，才能看出市场发展的意向…

美元兑日元昨天并没有持续走高—仅仅是勉强地往下修正。即便这样也仍会有价格出现再次下探的风险，但大致来讲，我希望价格恢复涨势，维持欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎之间的平衡，欧元兑日元的运行空间相对有限，轻微上涨，轻微下跌。这意味着交叉货币对从某些角度上讲，将进一步下行测试122.53低位。因此，需要观察两大重要货币对之间的平衡情况，并确定预期最终结果的发展信号—欧元兑日元必须回撤运行到更高位置。但是，走势发展需要先满足其自身结构发展的要求。

最后，对于澳元…我只能说走势有点“奇怪”。价格上冲至0.7736.这个点位是之前提示的潜在目标点位。走势看起来似乎不错，但与预期的潜在结构发展似乎不吻合。没有出现小时级别的看跌背离，但相对温和的背离信号出现在4小时级别，价格走势没有表现太迫切的发展意向…前期的预期情况已经结束，我在考虑另一个备选结构的发展，价格似乎会选择下行，或者可能需要更多的运行空间。这个结构的发展，需要更多的信息来辅助研判。

祝周末愉快。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Potentially a tricky day

The Dollar made gains yesterday, much as expected. This reached in to the middle of the target in EURUSD but USDCHF failed to reach the target I had hoped for. We’re now at a stage where it can go in either direction – one side limited and the other with greater room for a decent trend. (Not that trends are particularly bountiful these days…) This will probably suit Asia that tends to maintain a neutral stance until the European session begins. Thus, we’re going to have tread water for a while, maybe into the weekend if there is little sign of human traders’ life.

Even the “other” European, GBPUSD, managed a decent day of losses but has come up against a pullback of follow-through decision. This tends to match with the Continentals in terms of the options that are available on both sides of the market. No doubt it will take until the European session begins to see what the market wants to do first…

USDJPY didn’t provide the follow-through higher yesterday – well, only marginally – and then corrected lower. Even here there is a risk of an additional dip but overall I’ll expect it to begin to rally but there remains a balance between EURUSD and USDJPY that saw limited moves in EURJPY, down a bit and up a bit. This does tend to suggest the cross will – at some point – move lower to retest the 122.53 low. Therefore, we’ll have to observe the balance between the two major pairs to ensure that the expected final outcome develops – that EURJPY must push back higher at some point. However, we need to satisfy its own individual structure first.

Finally, the Aussie… What can I say? “Strange.” It rallied to 0.7736. That’s one point from a potential target I had been suggesting. Sounds good but I the underlying structure doesn’t seem to be correct. There’s no hourly bearish divergence but a modest 4-hour divergence but nothing that particularly screams out … “it’s done.” For the alternative structure I was considering, it appears to have broken down or maybe needs more development. This needs more information.

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey