走势延续还是出现回调—市场行情预测

美元指数终于展现了良好的上行走势—主要体现在欧系货币对当中，同时也体现在美元兑日元的走势当中。一旦这些货币对当中有某个货币对的价格运行远离了4小时级别的均衡云图，将面临上方若干个阻力压制。有机会我们会看到类似昨天的情况出现，虽然在小时图级别出现些美元看跌背离的发展信号。这使两大欧系货币对基本处于前两周我所指出的目标轨迹上运行。最好在今天的交易时段初期保持谨慎态度，并关注价格维持原走势运行的确认信号。

这个情况同样适用于美元兑日元，价格运行冲破上方压制109.90。考虑到价格从113.80高位展现的较深度下跌，风险程度比欧系货币更胜一筹。然而，价格运行的限制也是因为受欧元兑美元的运行情况影响。交叉货币对目前处于横向整理过程，维持窄幅震荡。有几个突破走势的方式，所以重要的是要严守交易纪律并关注潜在的区间突破情况…

欧系货币对和美元兑日元的走势发展情况，似乎令英镑兑美元的运行有些滞缓。当然，行情进展是显得有些杂乱并倾向于以复杂的方式运行。价格发展有挑战过4小时的价格均衡云图但未能成功，并没有明显突破下方支撑1.4196，在价格未能突破下方支撑之前，仍存在横向走势发展的风险。这需要多留意后续的发展情况。

澳元几乎触及了0.7723高位，在相差8个点左右的位置展开下跌。这符合了我所关注的第二个备选预期，今天的价格运行倾向于进一步下行。价格的发展或倾向符合预期情况—但也需要关联考虑欧元兑美元的情况。

今天行情仍存有风险，价格走势或不会像昨天那么直接。需要谨慎看待行情的发展。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Follow-through or pullback?

At long last we have seen good progress on the Dollar upside – mainly between the Continental Europeans but also in USDJPY. Once each of these pairs had pulled away from the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds there were few barriers to the upside. There’s every chance that we could see a similar outcome today although there are some signs in the hourly charts of Dollar bearish divergences developing. This keeps the two Europeans basically on track for the targets I have indicated for the past week. Best take care at the start of the day and look for confirmation of any follow-through.

This process can also be applied to USDJPY also, freed from the constraints having broken above the 109.09 high. Considering the sharp nature of the losses from the 113.80 high there’s every risk of this being a little more aggressive than the Europeans. However, there are constraints here also because we have EURUSD to manage also. The cross is in a sideways consolidation but within a ptty narrow range. There are several ways this can pan out so it will be important to be disciplined and be aware of and potential break from the range…

With all the movement in the Continental Europeans and USDJPY, it seemed to make GBPUSD drowsy. Certainly, the development has been a bit haphazard and that tends to complicate the outcome. It has challenged the 4-hour Price Equilibrium but has failed to make any significant break below 1.4196 and until it does manage a stronger break lower there is still some risk of sideways consolidation. This needs a little care.

The Aussie almost reached the 0.7723 high, falling short by 8 points. This satisfies the second alternative of the two options I was looking at and as such tends to suggest we shall see further losses today. There is a range in which it can stall and tends to match with the target expectation – and also correlating with EURUSD.

There’s a risk that today will not be quite as direct as yesterday. More care required.

Good trading

Ian Copsey