出现方向走势的一天？--行情走势预测

对于昨天市场无方向的震荡走势已有心理准备，我对昨天的行情表现也基本感到满意。英镑兑美元是其中一个相对能走出方向的货币对，对其价格走势维持大致的看涨预期，暂时还没有任何先入为主的涨幅限度观点。所以我将此视为一个积极的信号，虽然比较难判断。美元兑日元和美元兑瑞士法郎再次走低的情况多少有点令人感到失望。

接下来的市场走势会怎样发展？对此我有一个大致的时间目标，大概出现在5月份的第三周。大约在这个时间框架内，我认为会出现比较明显的运行方向。价格运行的趋势，一个日线级别的趋势…有相当长的一段时间内，市场没有呈现清晰的日线级别趋势，以至于很容易令人错信这个级别的趋势不会再次出现。如市场自去年年初就开始了令人痛苦的震荡走势。但是，即便如此也仍然意味着接下来的6周时间内，我们仍需要谨慎看待行情的发展。目前处于修正结构内的价格运行似乎需要调整。因此，总体来讲，我们仍将继续看到一些不同的结构和价格走势发展。

在过去几周里，我一直心无旁骛地锤炼自己的预期观点，现在大概也是开始实践的时候了。从现在看，美元的看涨预期发展有多快还是个未知数。然而，整个预期的发展似乎穿插在欧系货币对和美元兑日元的走势里。澳元的上行走势情况有待商榷。因此，怀疑今天应会出现一些走势进展。至于行情发展能有多迅速，我不想在这方面冒险，给予一个无精打采的市场猜测…

至于欧元兑日元，也可以将5月份第3周视为一个潜在目标。看上去似乎不会呈现相对直接的运行路径，但价格波动的区间范围会变得更为宽广。从目前情况来看，价格应会进一步走低，但我认为下方空间有限。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A directional day?

Having anticipated a particularly non-directional day yesterday, I was basically happy with yesterday. The one pair that did manage a little movement was GBPUSD for which I was basically bullish but without any pconceived idea of how deep the gains will penetrate. So, I’ll take that as positive day although it was a difficult one to judge. That USDJPY and USDCHF made marginal new lows was a bit disappointing.

What next? Well, I have a rough time target around the 3rd week in May. Around that timeframe I feel there may well be a stronger directional move. Yes, a trend. A daily trend… It has been so long without a decent daily trend that it would be easy to believe that we’ll never see one again. Such as been the wretchedness of the market since early last year. However, that still suggests we may need to tread water for another 6 weeks. This still appears to be correct from the position in the current corrective patterns. Thus, overall, I can still see we shall continue to see some difficult structures and development.

I have been hammering my view over the past week without getting anywhere but it is now about time that this view began to materialise. For now it seems Dollar bullish but how quickly this can develop is not really a known factor. However, this does seem to be universal across the Europeans and USDJPY. The Aussie is up for negotiation. Therefore, I suspect today should make some steps towards that outcome. How quickly this will develop I wouldn’t want to hazard a guess given the lethargy in the market…

As for EURJPY, I can see the 3rd week in May as a potential target also. It doesn’t look like a direct move but one with a wider amplitude between the swings. For now this should be lower but I don’t see a great deal of room on the downside for now.

Good trading

Ian Copsey