混合型价格结构—行情走势预测

昨天需要解决些棘手的问题。其中有些问题出现在不太清晰的价格运行区域，而有些问题带来了较令人意外的结果。这些情况构成了较低级别噪音的复杂性，使我不得不保持谨慎态度，但从另一方面来讲这些复杂性发展也是超出了我的设想范围。

作为分析的根基，欧系货币对继续横向整理走势发展--虽然美元兑瑞士法郎创出了新低。两者的走势相关性较稳定，之前的长期盘整区间运行情况令人觉得沮丧。但是，现在价格的运行应能顺应我前两天所提出的发展预期。

其他的欧系货币对，英镑兑美元的价格运行表现令人震惊。1.4052支撑位的下破令我有点目瞪口呆。游戏规则的改变也衍生出更多复杂的情况。当然价格也可以按自己的运行方式发展，不需要跟随欧系货币对的步伐，但从结构的情况来看，允许一个较大的价格回撤及目标投影区间出现。较棘手的状况将延续，目前不确定出现修正和背离的区间，并且从现在开始最好是单独看待该货币对的发展情况。当然结构的发展路径有点曲折，但主要的问题是源于回撤与投影目标区间出现的考虑。

澳元的价格回撤走势超出了预期的回撤水平和复杂程度。价格运行大致与欧元兑美元相关，但也有出现独有的走势方式的时候。结果似乎是已经出现了修正走势而不是一个下行推动走势，这意味着进一步的上行可能。我倾向于认为，这可能暗示该货币对现在相比欧元兑美元来讲，与英镑兑美元有更多的关联性…

最后，日元货币对…缺乏回撤更高位的价格上行走势情况与原来的预期产生差距，主要因为在区域内已经出现了相当规模的下跌。我发现在小时级别出现了较强的看涨背离信号—即使日线级别也有出现信号，但在4小时图级别仍是较为消极的价格走势量能信号。我认为今天最好是让市场自行指示方向。欧元兑日元延续跌势的情况，并没有提供较有价值和帮助的参考信息，但意味着这个交叉货币对基本是偏空走势—不过可能今天的情况还不太明显。我感觉更大可能的是出现横向震荡整理的风险。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A mixed bag of structures

There were some tricky problems to overcome yesterday. Some of these were in areas where I could see some ambiguity but there were other – quite surprising – outcomes. Such has been the complexity of lower degree noise that made me cautious on one hand but also those that I had just not envisaged.

As a base to work from, the Continental Europeans continued their basic sideways move – although USDCHF made a new low. These two have been relatively consistent but the long sideways range was quite frustrating. However, it should now follow the outcome I have indicated should develop for the past two days.

The other European, GBPUSD, was the shocker. The break below 1.4052 made my jaw gape. This is a game changer but does also generate a more complicated outcome. Of course, it can make its own way without following the Continentals but the structure does permit a wide range of pullbacks and projections. This is going to be a little bit tricky not knowing where there will be correlation or divergence and is best considered as an independent pair for now.

Certainly the structure is a tiny bit difficult and that’s the main issue in terms of retracement versus projections…

The Aussie pulled back above my retracement level and complicates. It has been roughly correlating with EURUSD but has its independent moments. The outcome appears to be that we have seen a correction rather than an impulsive decline and that suggests further upside. I tend to feel that this could imply more correlation with GBPUSD rather than EURUSD for now…

Finally, the JPY pairs… Well, the lack of any pullback higher is pulling me away from the original view, mainly because of the already sizeable decline in one area. I note a strong hourly bullish divergence – even daily also – but still negative momentum in the 4-hour chart. I think it will be best to allow the market to lay down a pointer today. That EURJPY extended losses is not really contributing any strong information doesn’t help either but it does suggest that the cross is still basically bearish – but may not be so today. More likely I feel there is a risk of a sideways move in the cross.

Good trading

Ian Copsey