混合发展情况—行情走势预测

昨天的行情确实是较为奇特，还不能说已经扑抓到了什么信息。行情发展增加了走势的复杂程度，加剧了各货币对之间的脱节情况。例如欧系货币对与英镑兑美元的大致横向走势，英镑兑美元的进一步下行，打破了我之前所关注的三角形整理区间，美元兑日元和澳元兑美元出现的快速下跌。昨天行情的主题是“信号钝化”，但已有预期极端行情走势的独特发展—并且过程中出现更多相同性质的风险。

就目前而言，欧系货币对看起来将延长其大致的横向盘整走势，但应会通过欧元/美元的走势带动而逐渐走出方向。届时我怀疑后续将出现前2天所提示的情况。英镑兑美元…我倾向价格往更高点位运行的观点，虽然还没看到较强的信号出现，所以最好保持观望等待信号确认。

澳元兑美元最终出现了预期的下行走势。小时图级别有出现看涨背离，但4小时的价格运行量能提示价格将往更低点位运行。这意味着修正走势仅是为了后续恢复下跌行情而做的铺垫。

至于日元货币对，我开始考虑潜在的价格反转走势，但价格的运行情况在下破低点后变得清晰了，不可避免地出现倾向看跌的结果。事实上，价格运行已出现了较大的下行幅度。如澳元，1小时级别看涨背离，但从4小时级别的价格量能仍能看出一些看跌的踪迹。怀疑一个稍微复杂一点的修正走势将出现—而不是较简单的修正方式—但最好还是观察反转信号的出现，避免陷入修正行情当中。这也应会带动欧元兑日元的相应走势发展…

目前行情发展仍然还有些棘手的混乱情况出现。所以需要谨慎看待。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A mixed bag

Well, that was a strange day and I can’t say that I caught much of that. In the process it has raised more complications and a general disconnect between the various currency pairs. Examples are the basic sideways move in the Continental Europeans versus GBPUSD, the additional decline in GBPUSD that breaks the triangle I had considered, sharp losses in USDJPY and also losses in AUDUSD. Yesterday’s title was “diverging indications” but I had expected the extremes to be so whacky – and the risk does appear to be for more of the same.

For now, the Continental Europeans look like extending their general sideways move but should pull out of their trance by European/U.S. trading and at that time I suspect the follow-through I have been suggesting for the past two days. GBPUSD … well, I’d pfer higher although I can’t see any strong indications and would therefore be best to wait for confirmation.

AUDUSD finally managed to see the losses I had expected. There is an hourly bullish divergence but 4-hour momentum is still pointing lower. This suggests a correction only and for losses to resume.

On to the JPY pairs, I began the day considering a potential reversal higher but it became clear on the break of the low that a more bearish outcome was inevitable. Indeed, it managed another sharp decline. Like the Aussie, it has an hourly bullish divergence but with 4-hour momentum still sniffing the bearish trail. I suspect a slightly deeper correction – rather than shallow – but best look for reversal indications rather than riding any correction. This should drag EURJPY along with its more important brother…

There are still some tricky confusions around. Take care.

Good trading

Ian Copsey