工作即将完成--行情走势预测

周五并没有出现令人惊喜的行情。出现的价格运行走势事实上相当有建设性，但似乎不足以确认一个推动结构—只是奠定了潜在推动的基础。亚盘的开场增加了多一些信息，但仍然不足够，市场甚至都还没有接近首个反转目标。这些首要反转目标将可能触发行情反转—是否修正或者稍后确认更大级别的反转。我真的不太确定本周会有一个特别果断的行情开端。上周美元指数下跌过程中，并没有出现看涨背离信号，即使在１小时级别里也没有出现，这是另一个保持谨慎态度的理由。

然而，就目前来讲，美元指数似乎仍然指向上行方向。假如继上周五后，价格后续维持在一个推动结构内运行，这将意味着出现价格修正，之后再延续原来的走势方向发展。从这一点出发考虑，我们需要更多的价格运行表现来证实结果。因此，美元的自我表述是—除非有更强的催化激发走势发展—否则我们需要承受缓慢而乏味的价格发展过程。

如说有较强发展潜能的货币对，那就要数欧元兑日元了，但更多的是要取决于美元兑日元的走势发展情况。价格从110.66低点迅速反弹，但随后陷入横向整理状态中。在整理范围内运行并没有进一步明确价格的发展方向。价格低位伴随着轻微的看涨背离信号出现，但信号还没明确并且价格也有可能突破盘整区间（1小时级别）。会往哪一个方向结束区间盘整走势目前还不得而知—但从欧元兑日元盘面来看，价格运行或会倾向于往更低点位发展…

如果有任何潜在的强那么它可能是欧元兑日元，但在很大程度上将取决于美元兑日元。它尖刺从110.66的低点高出但随后倒在了横盘整理的范围。这个范围还没有真正做了它的意图闻名。低想出了一个边际看涨背离，但没有坚定而仍然可以看到一个（每小时）条涨势范围的突破。哪一端的范围将突破仍是未知数 - 但从EURJPY，风险确实出现低...

不确定今天会否是一个特别有建设性走势的一天，但在今天行情结束之前，我们将会得到更多的一些价格信息.

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Work to be done

Friday didn’t surprise. The moves that we have seen were actually quite constructive but not nearly enough to confirm an impulsive structure – but just laid the foundations of a potential impulse wave. This morning’s start has added a little more, but still not enough and the market hasn’t even reached close to catch a sniff the first reversal targets. Even these first reversal targets will likely trigger a reversal – whether corrective or later confirm a larger reversal. I’m really not that sure we’ll get a particularly decisive start to the week. That last week’s Dollar lows did not provide Dollar even hourly bullish divergences remains another reason to tread carefully.

However, for now, the Dollar appears to still be pointing to the upside. Assuming we do see follow-through from Friday within an impulsive structure it will at least imply a correction and then second follow-through. It will be at that point that we need a more resounding outcome confirmed. As such, it sounds that – unless some greater catalyst springs up out of the ether – that we’ll have to suffer some ptty slow and boring development.

If there is any stronger potential then it may be in EURJPY but much will depend on USDJPY. It spiked higher from the 110.66 low but then slumped into a sideways range. This range has not really made its intent known. The low came with a marginal bullish divergence, but nothing firm and could still see a break of the range of that one (hourly) bar rally. Which end of the range will break is still unknown – but from EURJPY, the risk does appear lower…

I cannot promise a particularly constructive day but by the end we’ll have a little more information.

Good trading

Ian Copsey