市场回复防守模式--行情走势预测

记得以前英国央行宣布加息2%甚至3%时，并没有给市场带来太多影响。而现在美联储的利率决议只是宣布维持利率水平在0.25%或者是维持在0.5%，两者之间的市场反应相差甚大。每个人都对细微的差距感到兴奋。一个星期后，市场将会把这些情况消化掉。这些都是一派胡言。以日本的通胀率为例，目前官方统计数据是大约1.1%。更离谱的是，价格上涨而供应量减少。这就是所谓的“通缩”，现在日本也出现这种情况。1970年代，英国出现的通缩情况猜想最终怎样？通缩瓦解，因为生产者可以进一步减少供应量，然后通胀水平迅速上升到15%。这是情况转变的信号。

美联储的声明已经带来了明显的影响，似乎美元会出现往低位修正的发展倾向。我不认为这已经结束，最大可能将出现上下波动行情。我不确定今天或者还是明天会发生这些情况，但基本上针对急速的下跌走势，市场需要调整，但应该会出现在后续的行情里。这在欧系货币和美元兑日元的走势上有较明显的体现。另外一些直盘货币对—英镑兑美元和澳元对美元—几乎都处于修正当中。而我也并没有期望会出现更多的发展，价格走势情况已经给予了我需要确认的信息，特别是美元兑日元。总体来讲，这意味着在下周之前，价格运行“一切如常”。

因此，对于今天，不要期望会出现明显的价格走势。市场运行受到一些冲击，所以如果有进场机会的话，建议见好就收。明天之前—或者如果今天出现一个复杂的修正走势—那么下周一，我们应能再次看到较明朗的价格运行方向…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Back into defensive mode

Gosh, I remember the days when the Bank of England hiked rates by 2% or even 3% and didn’t really make any impact on the market. Now the Fed announcement that interest rates are being held between 0.25% and 0.50% and the market reacts. Zzzz… Everyone’s getting too excited about very little. Give it another week and the market will have shrugged it off. It’s all a lot of baloney. Take the Japanese inflation rate. Officially it’s around 1.1%. More baloney. Prices have gone up and volume has gone down. That’s called “shrinkflation” and it’s happening big time here in Japan. The U.K. had shrinkflation back in the 1970’s and guess what? Shrinkflation collapsed because manufacturers could reduce volume any more and the inflation rate whizzed up to 15%. It is the sign of things to come.

Well, the Fed announcement has clearly caused a reaction that has seen new Dollar corrective lows. I don’t think this is complete and most likely we’ll see another blip. I’m not sure whether it’ll happen today or tomorrow but basically the market needs a pullback to the sharp losses but should then see follow-through. This is most evident in the Continental Europeans and USDJPY. The other direct pairs – GBPUSD and AUDUSD – are merely in a correction. While I hadn’t expected this development, it has given confirmation of what I feel is needed in USDJPY in particular. Overall, this should mean that by next week it will be ‘business as usual.’

Thus, for today, don’t expect a significant day. The market will be a little shell shocked so just take a few pips when they are easy to take. By tomorrow – or if today is a complex correction – then Monday, we should begin to see a directional move once again…

Good trading

Ian Copsey