美联储议息公布前的行情走势预测

今天的行情会温和加速吗？

在昨天的市场行情里我寻求稳定的走势发展，但我的想法是希望能看到些价格运行进展。从欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎的盘面情况来看，市场把我的“稳定”解读为横向整理运行。其他货币对实际上确实展现了稳定的发展，虽然没有体现任何较强的推动力。很明显市场维持自我保护模式—或许是受了持续将近一年的横向整固走势的影响（欧元兑美元）。但是，最坏的情况已经结束了，我所认为的“结束”将在今天的行情中给予我们一个更具方向性发展的指引。

特别是，某些具有不确定性/混合性前景的货币对似乎已经下定了决心，如澳元对美元和英镑兑美元。也就是说，这些货币对将会出现较明确的下行走势，并应会下行接近短期低点。这两个货币对的情况同样令我陷入对其不稳定的下跌走势的解码过程中。希望能找出合适的结构形态…

如日内没出现意料之外的下跌的话，美元兑日元的价格走势相对较为稳定。价格运行到目标点位的过程有些迂回曲折，期间仍会出现震荡、反复的行情，但总体来讲，我对它的走势情况感到比较满意。美元兑日元的价格运行情况也有助于带动欧元兑日元进一步下行。个中的交汇处出现类似于英镑兑美元的不确定性下行。美元兑日元和欧元兑美元潜在的进一步下行，可能会为双方带来更清晰的方向发展。

总体而言，我仍然感到满意。我希望能看到稍微明确一点的加速发展，但我们仍需要保持耐心…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Mild acceleration today?

I had looked for steady trading yesterday, but my idea was for progress to be made. The market interpted my “steady” as moving sideways in EURUSD and USDCHF it seems. The other pairs actually did provide steady progress although without any strong impetus. Clearly the market remains in self-protection mode – perhaps rocked by the constant sideways development (in EURUSD) that has lasted for an entire year now. However, all bad things come to an end and I think that “end” will provide us with a more directional move over the course of today.

In particular, the pairs with uncertain/mixed outlooks appear to have made up their minds – these being AUDUSD and GBPUSD. Having said that, these two made steady losses but should be close to a short term low. Equally, both made me suffer in terms of decoding the persistently erratic decline. Hopefully I have got these two structures right…

USDJPY made steady, if unspectacular losses over the day. It has taken a round-about route to the target and there could still be some swings and roundabouts to navigate but overall I am ptty satisfied with how it’s developing. It also helped EURJPY to drift lower also. The cross is rather similar to GBPUSD in terms of the erratic decline. There is potential for further losses on the back of USDJPY and EURUSD and therefore could provide the best of both worlds in terms of a stronger directional move.

Overall, I remain satisfied. I’d like to see a little stronger acceleration but we’ll have to be patient still…

Good trading

Ian Copsey