本周行情缓慢拉开序幕--行情走势预测

我对上周五的行情发展并没有感到过多的惊讶。欧洲央行带来的冲击仍然限制了市场往突破位发展的欲望，这似乎也在4小时价格均衡云图指标上得到确认，目前均衡云图指标也压制了美元的走势。不能说市场没有推动美元进一步上行的意愿，但我怀疑任何价格的试探性运行都可能触发美元上行，但估计今天不会出现这种情况。围绕着英国退欧盟的说辞，一般来讲都会（并保证会）令股票市场感到紧张。这往往至少意味着欧系货币今天的运行范围相当有限。

话虽如此，英镑兑美元已呈现了进一步的上行走势，同时在1小时和4小时图表内出现明显的看涨势头。价格运行上方空间有限，但无论如何，仍需警惕多头的力量发展—从1小时和4小时级别的量能得到支持。我仍然建议不要过于坚守一些突破位限制因素，过高看涨价格运行。价格运行表现往往是与欧洲大陆的情况相符，依据市场总体存在的潜在忧虑考虑。

同时，澳元符合之前预期上行到更高点位，但似乎仍然有进一步上行的风险—虽然4小时的价格运行量能开始放缓，并可能发展为4小时级别的看跌背离。我不确定这种状况将会持续多长时间，所以仍然保持谨慎看待的态度。

在旭日上升的领土上，美元兑日元出现了些上行走势，随后拉动了欧元兑日元的价格运行。我不确定这些价格上涨走势是否可以持续，所以小心处理并关注价格运行的量能。我也注意到其中4小时价格均衡云图是呈现上行趋势，所以即使价格出现下跌，也只会是轻微程度的下跌。需要关注欧元兑美元和美元兑日元，相关的价格运行量能的变化情况，以便计划下一步的方向运行…

经过前几天之后，市场表现似乎有点迷茫，因此我们需要一步步来处理…

预祝拥有一个获利丰厚的交易周

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Slow start to the week?

I can’t say I’m too surprised with Friday’s development. The ECB shock may still limit the market’s appetite to push the boundaries and this appears to be confirmed by the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that are currently capping the Dollar. I won’t say that the market won’t attempt to push the Dollar higher but I suspect that any attempt could see the Dollar edge higher, but I just can’t see that happening today. There’s also the rhetoric surrounding Brexit and the general (and warranted) nervousness over the equity markets. This tends to suggest a relatively limited ranging day for today in the Europeans at least.

Having said that, GBPUSD has seen further gains won bullish momentum in both hourly & 4-hour charts. It does have some limited upside factors but, nevertheless, still cautiously bullish – and supported by positive hourly & 4-hour momentum. I’d still suggest we don’t push too hard with some limiting factors not too far higher. This tends to match the Continental Europeans in terms of the underlying nervousness in the market in general.

Meanwhile, the Aussie pushed higher as I had hoped for and still has further upside risk it seems – although 4-hour momentum is beginning to slow and could develop a 4-hour bearish divergence. I’m not sure it’s going to last for a long time so still retain some caution.

Over in the Land of the Rising Sun, USDJPY made some decent gains to pull EURJPY behind it. I’m not sure these gains are sustainable at this point so do take care and note momentum. I also note that in the cross the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud is rising so even if we see losses they should be shallow on the day. We shall have to keep an eye on the relative movement in both EURUSD and USDJPY in order to recognise the next directional move…

The market appears to have been a little bemused over the past few days and therefore we need to take things step by step…

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey