欧元区盛宴之夜后的市场行情走势预测

德拉基的罗网…

市场如常开始，投资者参与市场交易，行情如常展开，走势的发展感觉有如背部的按摩拍打和有趣的棒球赛祝酒会那样惬意。

然后不知不觉地步入了德拉基布下的天罗地网…

出现如此混乱的行情状况是无法预测的。不用说，事件引起了所有市场的巨大波动—外汇，股票和债券。美国股票的表现情况符合预期…毫无疑问，这将会传导性影响到整个亚洲的股票市场，至少进一步带动股票出现类似的下跌。外汇市场价格剧烈波动。其实在某些方面，早已出现轻微破位和一些反转迹象，但一般发生在平常交易条件下的，如膝跳反应般的价格表现，隐藏了一些关键线索。

从这个角度出发，为了评估接下来的走势发展和可能出现的影响，我今天应保持中立态度。

在所有货币对之中，澳元兑美元的走势几乎没有出现回落并维持其价格发展结构。而其他的货币对如同遭到闪电式袭击般凌乱。因此，我对澳新系列货币保留某些观点—这往往意味着价格仍会上行到更高点位。

美元兑日元也出现了相对有限的反应。价格进一步被推高，超出预期范围，但似乎价格发展情况正相宜—如果是复杂型的—看跌结构。对于持有坚定信念来讲，太多的价格折返是唯一的问题。我仍保留着跟昨日一样的价格目标，需要等待价格运行进一步靠近目标区间，以及结合价格运行的量能/价格运行的表现来找出正确的答案。

另外，剩余的其他货币对走势状况都参差不齐，破败不堪，最好的方式就是让他们以自己的方式稳定下来，进一步发展出更强大的结构。

祝周末愉快。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Draghi-net…

It started out like any ordinary day, traders partaking in the market, normal development developing slaps on back and jolly hockey sticks the toast of the day.

Enter Draghi-net…

My goodness, there’s no way of anticipating such bedlam. Needless to say, it has caused havoc across just about all markets – Forex, equities and treasuries. In the U.S. equities it certainly resolved my outlook… No doubt there will be reverberations through the Asian stock markets and the likelihood of further losses in equities at least. In Forex, the movements have been scrappy. At some points we’ve seen minor breaches and reversals that, along with the clearly knee-jerk reactions have hidden a few key clues that normally occur in normal trading conditions. From that point of view I shall be ptty neutral today in order to assess what happens next and the likely implications.

Of all, it was AUDUSD that barely flinched and maintained its structure. All others were blitzed. Therefore, I still have a decent view in the Antipodean – and this still tends to suggest a move higher still.

USDJPY also had a relatively limited reaction. It did push higher than I had expected but seems to have a decent – if complicated – bearish structure. The only problem is that there are too many twists and turns to hold a strong conviction. The targets I had yesterday remain the same and we’ll have to wait until that target area is approached and whether momentum / price demonstrate the correct outcome.

Otherwise, the rest are rather ragged and best left to their own device while they settle down and a stronger structure develops.

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey