回归常态--市场走势预测

很显然，上周五的非农就业数据公布，基本上是一种兔子忽然被大头灯灯光聚焦的样子。没有人真正想采取太多行动，直到数据公布之后。数据有令人觉得惊喜之处吗？略微有些吧…当考虑到价格的结构形态能有较强或较弱的投影目标时，这种情况可以接受。这次的数据公布，令美股走势发展到极限，但对外汇方面的影响较小。数据公布后的价格走势发展并不是我所预期的情况，但价格运行在限值范围内。这意味着我们已处于一种需要美元展现自我意向的状况。有些温和的迹象表明，美元将重振上行走势，虽然目前还没有得到确认。

从技术上来讲，有些反转量能信号出现，同时4小时的价格均衡云图靠近美元价格顶部。这往往提示本周的交易是以平静走势拉开序幕。如美元恢复上涨走势，那么就需要亚盘时段展现较为中立均衡的运行状况，最好是体现在欧元上—或者欧系货币的其他币别—也允许价格均衡云图横向运行。

在将出现的结果中，欧元兑日元的价格走势里有一个潜在提示。个人对该货币对持中立态度，意识到欧元兑美元运行到阻力位，同时美元兑日元未能体现太多的上涨幅度。从这个交叉情况考虑，价格走势出现循环，意味着价格将会进一步下跌。在我看来，这意味着欧元兑美元也将选择下行。

在我所跟进范围内的货币对走势，如果说有影响预期水平的，那么就是澳元兑美元，该货币对价格走势未能按预期反转到显著低点，并以上行到更高点位的走势情况来结束当天的行情。

因此，需要小心谨慎看待周初的行情发展，但在周末之前，我感觉我们会忘记所有在上周五出现的每月一次的市场动荡情况。

预祝拥有获利丰厚的交易周

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Back to normality

Clearly Friday’s NFP release was basically a case of a rabbit caught in headlights. No one really wants to do very much until the announcement is made. Did it surprise? Mildly… Whenever considering a structure there can be stronger or weaker projections that can be absorbed. In this case it pushed the U.S. equities to the extreme but in Forex but to a lesser extent. The post release development was not what I had wanted but was within the boundaries of the extremes. This means that we have been left in a situation where we need the Dollar to confirm its intentions. There are some modest signs that we should see the Dollar resume its rally although there has been no confirmation.

Technically, we have less than clean momentum reversal indications and 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that capping the Dollar. This tends to point to a quiet start to the trading week. If we are to see the Dollar resume its uptrend then we need Asia to settle for neutrality and pferably for Europe – or part of the European session – also to allow the Price Equilibrium Clouds to move sideways.

There is one potential indication that we shall see this outcome and that is suggested in EURJPY. I have been relatively neutral on this pair, aware of the limited upside in EURUSD while USDJPY failed really to make much of a dent on the upside. From the cross, we have seen a recycling that suggests further losses. In my mind, this points to EURUSD opting for the downside.

If there is any detractor from the group of pairs I follow, then its in AUDUSD that failed to reverse lower significantly and ended the day moving higher and on bullish momentum.

Therefore, it looks like a cautious start to the week but by the end I feel we’ll have forgotten all about Friday’s monthly distraction.

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey