非农数据公布前市场走势预测

是的，今天是非农日…而且数据公布时间正好处于股票和外汇的关键时刻。当然，我们都知道数据公布瞬间会引起价格运行混乱，我怀疑这就是我们今天将会看到的。即使出现了明显的反转信号，这个数据的公布也可以令这些信号失效。最重要的是要知道看涨/看跌结构在哪里被破坏。有些突破位是一个区间范围，而有些是比较精准的点位。美股在多空两个方向都有些较接近的突破位。

至于美元…并没料想到昨日的走势表现。也许是因为我对美元走弱的预期，但预期价格走弱仅是出现在价格创较高点之后出现。价格直接出现反转令人觉得有点痛苦，但也把价格带到我（最终）所预期的位置。价格走势往往能较好地与更高级别的结构衔接，并穿插结合主要的美元货币对。现在我们只需要等待非农数据的公布，之后就可以知道价格结构能否维持有效…

我倾向于看涨美元和看跌股市的结果。

欧系货币对，可能连同澳元，应该会一起行动，基本都会触及到关键的突破区域。在这些区域附近有些价格缓冲空间，但总的来讲，只要非农数据给予指引，就能找寻美元恢复涨势的路径。美元兑日元的走势处于稍微不同的位置。价格反抽到较低位置，在非农数据公布之前，更具备横向整理走势的指引性。我仍然认为该货币对需要进一步展开上行。

至于欧元兑日元，该货币对走势情况可以为我们的研判提供线索，价格似乎会延续走高。我怀疑价格部分上涨幅度源自美元兑日元的走势带动。价格的运行发展可以触发一些明显的反复波动—可能会--也有可能不会…

总体而言，我们应会拥有一个相对安静的一天，直到非农数据公布 ......保重......

祝周末愉快。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Whips and lashes

Yes, it’s Non Farm Payroll day… and it comes at an interesting juncture in both Forex and Equities. Of course, we all know the release can generate absolute bedlam and I suspect that’s what we’ll get. Even if there are great reversal indications, this report can blast them out of the market. The most important issue is understanding where a bullish/bearish structure breaks. Some break levels can have wide ranges while others are ptty pcise. U.S. equities have some close levels on both sides of the market.

As for the Dollar… well, I didn’t anticipate what happened yesterday. Maybe I did because I had expected the Dollar to weaken but only after a minor new Dollar high. That it reversed directly was a bit of a pain but brings us to where I had (eventually) expected. It tends to slot in well with the higher degree structure and across all the major Dollar-currency pairs. We now just need to wait for the NFP release to let us know whether the structure holds or not…

My favoured outcome is Dollar bullish and Equity bearish.

The European currencies and probably Aussie should all move together having generally reached key barriers. There is room for a cushion around these areas but overall, as long as the NFP dictates, I do look for the Dollar to resume gains. USDJPY is in a slightly different position. The pullback lower yesterday is more indicative of a sideways range ahead of the NFP. I still feel this pair needs to extend gains.

As for EURJPY, as this could provide us with clues, it appears set to move higher. I suspect some of the gains will be driven by USDJPY. The release can obviously trigger some volatility that may – or may not – help…

Overall, we should have a relatively quiet day until NFP… Take care…

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey