市场延续早期的整固走势风险—行情走势预测

昨天的市场交易比较难操作。特别是欧系货币对和澳元—连带影响欧元兑日元的价格运行。目前这些货币对走势正处于一个反复，并且比较脆弱的整固走势发展阶段，看情况似乎至少会延续到欧盘交易时段。或许最好先让市场自我发挥，然后尝试从中寻找一些感觉和线索，直到价格出现破位。在价格整固区间两个方向都会有些缓冲，价格会触及到这些缓冲地带，但仍会维持在较高级别的结构中运行。因此，追随破位走势情况。

同时，英镑兑美元的走势发展符合预期，出现较大幅度的修正。价格需要下行到昨天报告里强调的下一个目标。

澳元的走势发展与预期有些差距，价格运行出现更大幅度的回抽，现在令其结构变得复杂。价格走势倾向于反复出现这种状况…实际上，也很经常发生。价格的走势方向今天或会更明朗一些，并延续运行，符合潜在预期情况。走势发展将会改变投影目标，但不会给大周期结构带来真正影响。

美元兑日元昨天的价格运行表现有点令人讨厌，价格先是在早盘时段出现较猛烈的下探，并触及到极限回撤位，这种情况偶尔也会发生，但价格随后并没有真正往下运行到112.15。由此需要价格运行到较大的投影目标，以触及同样的价格目标区域。价格量能状况展示良好，但会时不时受到一些温和的深度修正走势的挑战。很明显，美元兑日元的走势发展带动了欧元兑日元往较高点位运行—仅比预期值稍高的位置—但这是非常复杂的联动震荡下行的关键因素。我们希望，从这个价格位置开始，价格运行会有更好的进展，但需要关注过程中潜在冲突的出现。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Continued risk of early consolidation

Yesterday’s trading was a ptty messy affair. This was seen particularly in the two Continental Europeans and Aussie – and to an extent in EURJPY. Currently there is a gnarled and fragile consolidation developing in these pairs that look like extending into European trading at least. It will probably be better to let the market play around with this than try and make too much sense out of it until we begin to see a break. There are buffers around each side of the consolidation into which price can reach but maintain the higher degree structure. Thus, follow the break.

Meanwhile, GBPUSD was expected to see a deep recovery and this has occurred. This should be followed by losses to the next target highlighted in yesterday’s report.

The Aussie didn’t develop quite as expected, seeing a deeper pullback that now complicates its structure. It tends to do that from time to time… actually, quite often. It should resolve itself today and likely extend its move and still in line with the underlying expectation. It will alter the projection targets but shouldn’t cause any real issues in the larger picture.

USDJPY was a bit of a nasty chap yesterday with the sharp dip in early trading to an extreme retracement that occasionally happens but it didn’t really need to move down to the 112.15 level. All it has caused is a stronger projection to be required to reach the same targets. Momentum appears to be positive but will be challenged at time with some modestly deep corrections. Clearly, it drove EURJPY higher – just above where I thought it would stall – but was a factor of a really complicated set of ratcheting swings on the way down. Hopefully, from this point it can begin to make better progress but there are some potential conflicts so do take care

Good trading

Ian Copsey