良好的价格走势进展—行情走势预测

虽然在昨天市场刚开始的交易时段里，行情的发展与个人的预期不完全相符，但符合开放式的结果预期。有些价格运行触及关键位置和随后的价格运行发展表现—特别是美元兑日元的下行幅度，价格触及了超出预期范围的极限位置。预期支撑线的力度相当有限，远离现价运行区域，并且价格或进一步再次走低。也就是说，目前还没有确认是否有足够的动能将价格从低位拉升。

因此，即使本周的开场有其他备用可能选项，但这并没有给最终结果带来真正改变。市场仍会出现剧烈波动—不要过度受市场表现影响，即便如此，今天看起来不像会出现较强运行趋势。市场存在横向整固走势的发展风险，时间的延展可以从价格运行的区间范围体现。这种情况尤其与欧系货币相关。

正如预期，欧元兑日元创出125.00高点后，价格稳步向下运行。在大一些级别的周期内，我并不认为这是一个阶段性的最终低点，但是是临时低点。然而，价格的运行发展需要美元兑日元开始出现价格企稳迹象并出现收复跌势来配合，上行突破更高点位—初步估计113.25上方…如欧元兑日元的价格运行进一步下破创出新低，将会出现比预期更大幅度的下跌走势。

澳元继周五走出低点后，也出现了温和的后续发展，但随后价格出现反弹。价格运行会出现较昨日更低的点位，但之后会有价格修复走势出现。这往往意味着澳新货币和欧系货币是保持高度一致的。

今天总体是一个稳定的开始，并且将会看到价格剧烈波动的持续时间。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Good progress overall

Although the beginning of trading yesterday wasn’t quite what I had expected from the open the eventual outcome was as expected. There were a few touch and go moments – particularly the depth of the losses in USDJPY that hit an extreme which I had not expected. The line in the sand was ptty much the limit beyond which it would turn lower again. That said, we have had no confirmation that it has the energy to pick itself up off the floor.

So, even with the alternative start to the week, the eventual outcome hasn’t really changed much. We still have some choppy moves to come – not excessive by the look of things but nevertheless today doesn’t look like a strong trending day. There may be risk of consolidations developing to extend the time we see within a range. This relates particularly to the Europeans.

As I had expected, EURJPY found its high at 125.00 and saw a steady bearish day. In the larger picture I don’t think this is a final low but a temporary one. However, it will require USDJPY to begin to stabilise and muster up some courage to break back higher – initially above 113.25… If it breaks any lower then we’re seeing a much deeper decline than I had anticipated.

The Aussie also saw a mild follow-through from Friday’s low but then a recovery. This should see a low below yesterday’s low but then a recovery. This tends to suggest that the Antipodean is very much in line with the Europeans.

Mostly a steady start to the day and we’ll have to see how long the choppy development lasts.

Good trading

Ian Copsey