平静走势结束这一周的交易—行情走势预测

昨日的价格运行状况不太明确。价格走势并不完全与预期相悖，但美元指数没有展开全面的上涨。怀疑今天的上半天时间内仍维持这种状况。如英镑兑美元，价格运行似乎被锁定在一个横向区间—这种情况也潜在存在于澳元兑美元的走势当中。欧元兑美元的表现如同被前方开来的大卡车的前射灯照着，一副呆若木鸡的模样，而美元兑瑞士法郎则表现略稳定的一些上行走势，但随后价格出现回落。这些情况似乎体现市场的价格运行有些脱节。

话虽如此，但我感觉价格或会出现方向性突破走势，在较长的交易时段来临之前，（如平常一样）即欧盘或者美盘交易时段，又或者两个交易时段里。我仍然倾向于美元的上行预期，但需要关注目前的状态会维持多久。

虽然澳元的走势有些纠结—但足以体现潜在横向整理走势出现的可能。这并不是我所期待的结果，但也有其他的一些可选项出现，这种走势状态会在近期的运行区间里持续一整天。价格在这些区间里打转。

至于美元兑日元，价格运行稳步上行，虽然我希望这种状况能持续，但一些初级的整固走势风险也存在其中。这往往配合了欧元兑日元的价格运行发展，得益于日元这位大哥一定程度的走势修复。然而，结合欧元兑美元的下行预期，需要观察3个货币对之间的平衡。对于这3个货币对，价格上方仍有些发展空间，关键是交点在哪个位置体现走弱并开始往更低的点位运行…

我发现在价格范围内货币对的关系，在某程度上比较灵活，但更明确的价格运行偏向发展可能是今天市场休市之前或周一才会出现…

祝周末愉快。

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Quiet end to the week?

I’m not quite sure about yesterday’s moves. Nothing really went awry but we didn’t see the Dollar make gains universally. I suspect this will continue over the first half of today. For example, GBPUSD appears to be locked in a sideways range – and potentially AUDUSD also. EURUSD appeared to be frozen as if caught in the headlights of an on coming truck while USDCHF made some steady gains but then gave them back. It’s almost as if the market is a little disjointed.

Having said that, I do feel we shall see a directional break before long and most likely (as normal) either in European or U.S trading hours – or maybe both. I still think this is more biased to the Dollar upside but we’ll have to see how long the current status quo can hold.

Even the Aussie has some kinks in it – and enough to suggest the potential for a sideways consolidation. This isn’t the outcome I expected but there are a few options here and this should keep it in the recent range for the entire day. Play the ranges here.

As for USDJPY, it has made steady gains and while I expect these to continue there is also the risk of some initial consolidation. This tends to dovetail with EURJPY that took advantage of its Japanese big brother to make a decent recovery. However, with the expectation that EURUSD will decline, we shall need to watch the balance between the three pairs. While there can still be upside room for the cross there will be a point where the cross fades and begins to point lower…

I find the relationship within the range of currency pairs quite flexible to a degree but a clearer directional bias is likely to develop either by the end of today or on Monday…

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey