阶段性行情走势的展开—市场行情走势预测

浪(ii)的22%修正幅度很少出现。价格运行情况有点令人觉得意外，价格并没有经过太大的调整就直接沿续之前的方向运行。这个过程比较痛苦因为对于小概率事件来讲是比较难提前做好准备的…

行情的发展与较保守的预期有些不符，但勾勒出了欧系货币对的走势概貌。从某些方面考虑，现在还是阶段运行初期。我可以由此推测潜在的投影目标，但价格运行在到这个点位上，可以应用的比例范围太多以至于较难确定目标。这需要价格展开一些幅度的走势以激发预期较低级别的浪型形成。

无论如何，美元的冲高上行，突破了4小时级别和1小时级别的价格均衡云图--这是个积极的信号—但当欧元兑美元突破下方日线级别的价格均衡云图时，这种走势情况却没有同样类似出现在美元兑瑞士法郎上。英镑兑美元运行情况有所不同，但仍然指向更低位发展。

澳元兑美元上破0.7242高位的走势有点令人意外。较难想象价格快速上行至更高点位，虽然现实也考虑了价格有进一步上行的风险。或许有两个更高风险的可能性，不同之处是看价格能否延续多大幅度的上行。我不得不去继续追踪观察寻找答案，但目前暂时还没有定论…最好是先任由价格运行一段后再观察跟进其下一步的走势情况…

美元兑日元…未能延续下行走势并且价格被进一步推高。这是个可能性结果，但无论如何我比较倾向于预期价格继续创新低。目标点位维持不变。美元兑日元的上升幅度不大，但也不足以阻挡欧元兑日元的进一步下跌。行情延续既定预期方向发展的可能性或会加大-就像欧元兑英镑一样也会下行到更低点位。根据美元兑日元和欧元兑日元的走势发展情况，最好是持仓观望等待，因为价格或会有进一步创新低的行情风险出现。最好等待美元兑日元的目标点位…

祝交易顺利。           

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A turn up for the books…

A Wave (ii) correction of 22% rarely occurs. The outcome to this event is a surprisingly direct follow-through. These events are painful because it’s difficult to be ppared for a rare event… That scuppered my conservative outlook but does provide a general outlook for the Europeans. In some ways, it’s still early days. I can generate potential projection targets but at this point the range of applicable ratios are too many to be certain. This has the bump on effect of estimating where the intermediate lower degree waves may stall.

Nevertheless, the burst higher in the Dollar has seen it break above both the 4-hour and hourly Price Equilibrium Clouds – so a positive outcome – but while EURUSD has broken below its daily Price Equilibrium Cloud, it has not been replicated in USDCHF. GBPUSD is in a different position but still pointing lower.

Quite how AUDUSD managed to break above 0.7242 had me speechless. I can’t imagine it’s going to soar away higher but there does appear to be risk of further gains. There are probably two high risk outcomes with the difference being how deep it can continue higher. It has forced me to scramble to work this out but I’ve not quite sussed it out yet… Best leave alone for now and observe the next move…

USDJPY… failed to extend losses and actually pushed higher. It was the eventual outcome anyway but I would have pferred to have caught the low. The target remains the same. However, as much as USDJPY made gains, it was not enough to stop EURJPY extending losses. I suspect that general outcome will continue – as – most likely – EURGBP should also drift lower. In terms of USDJPY and EURJPY it’ll be best to hold off due to the risk of some erratic lower degree development at times. Best wait for that USDJPY target…

Good trading

Ian Copsey