关于市场转变--行情走势预测

关于市场转变

过去的2-3天行情运行得很纠结，展现反复无常和上下震荡的走势，令人在寻找各品种相互之间如何配合的过程中觉得异常苦恼。早上从之前跟进的计算开始着手，希望能找出解决方案。方案已经找到—我至少这么认为—但不是我所期望的。所有的触发都来源于价格运行的势能。我不喜欢同时与小时级别和4小时级别的背离状况作战，并且在欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎上都同时出现这种背离情况。最后，4小时的价格均衡云图处于支撑美元的较脆弱阶段，并开始趋于走平放缓......也就无需多说...

虽然英镑兑美元的走势情况处于一个完全不同的位置和结构，更多的是体现偏多走势，但状况的明朗没有得到欧系货币的走势配合。似乎与殴盟的协商引起了市场的谨慎情绪，价格需要慢慢走出方向。可能今天走势会有些压抑。

美元兑日元昨天的表现令人失望，预期是先延续上行至更高一些的点位--持续整固或者再次反弹的方式。相反，价格缓慢偏下运行直至当日行情结束。这种平淡无味的缓慢走势的麻烦之处，就是价格运行势能开始消散，虽然价格已运行到小时级别和4小时级别的价格均衡云图下方。这会令美元兑日元步入无人地带，并且需要发展出更强的结构形态才能把价格的运行带回轨道。

美元兑日元的下行情况联动影响了欧元兑日元的走势发展，但我不认为将会出现更大的跌幅。价格走势仍然偏空，但需要注意在价格运行过程中会否出现变数…

至于澳元，在当日较早时段价格运行创出新高，但随后缓慢下行。反弹高点的形态结构显得模棱两可，因此需要关注在关键支撑阻力位上，价格会否有更清晰并强有力的破位运行表现…这将会触发更明朗的走势方向发展。

祝周末愉快。           

伊恩•科普塞

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

About turn

The past 2-3 days of knobbly, erratic and whippy development has been freakishly painful in terms of working out how everything fits together with each other. I began this morning with the count I had been following, hoping that I’d find a solution. I did find the solution – I think at least – but it’s one that I hadn’t expected. The trigger for all of this came from momentum. I don’t like fighting both hourly and 4-hour divergences and these are psent in both EURUSD and USDCHF. To cap this, the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds are at a vulnerable stage where they’ve been supporting the Dollar but beginning to flatten out… No more need be said…

While GBPUSD is in a completely different position and structure, it is more on the bullish side but without the clarity of the Continentals. It seems the negotiations with the jolly EU chaps is causing reluctance in the market to push the boat out. It’ll probably remain somewhat subdued for the day.

The disappointment yesterday was in USDJPY that I had expected to follow-through higher – either in a consolidation or renewed rally. Instead it dribbled and wobbled lower over the day. The trouble with such insipid dribbles is that momentum begins to lose focus, although price has drifted below both hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds. This leaves it in no-man’s land and we need a stronger structure to develop to bring us back on track.

These losses in USDJPY impacted on EURJPY but I’m not convinced that we’ll see extended losses. Momentum is still bearish but watch out for any change in the readings…

As for the Aussie, we saw a new high early on in the day but then a drift lower. The structure in the rally to the high was ambiguous and therefore this needs a stronger break of key support / resistance… This will trigger a stronger directional move.

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey