昨日的市场犹豫不决--行情走势预测

严格来讲，昨日的市场总体表现较差。我们应该投诉广告公司并要求退钱…话虽如此，但也不能说所有的表现都与预期相悖。事实上，我对几个货币对的走势发展并没有太多期待，整体来讲，也算是不过不失的一天—但市场已从中受益…

从昨日的情况来看，应提示今天会有一个更好的价格运行表现。不确定美元兑日元的走势方向，因为看起来美元兑日元或可能是自我设定了进一步的横向整固走势。该货币对有运行方向选项

，因此我们需要把盘整区间的关键支撑阻力位置纳入考虑范围。一旦这些位置被打破，将会触发更强的走势发展。其走势不是震荡无序的状态，但希望价格能运行到我所关注的目标区域。欧元兑日元也是有运行方向选项—但同在日系货币对中，他们的目标位置提示相同程度的运行距离。而欧元兑美元的走势表现却令人疑惑。

在欧系货币对中，英镑兑美元走势发展符合主要预期。价格运行略显迂回直到当天行情结束，这增加了市场状况的复杂性。需要警惕价格的下破风险。这可能意味着，欧系货币也都需要破位。欧元兑美元的窄幅波动区间在3个点之内触及预期支撑位置。同时，美元兑瑞士法郎突破了阻力位，但出现了4小时级别的看跌背离—虽然小时级别维持多空均衡状态。因此，两者的关键位置运行情况将是行情发展的契机。

最后，澳元汇价较大幅上扬，价格进一步被推高，但在小时级别里也依稀看到看跌背离。我从中发现两个价格运行方向选项—直接运行走出方向或者展开1到2天的宽幅振荡走势，最终才出现较大级别的走势方向。

伊恩•科普塞伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Market wimpish yesterday

Seriously, that was a ptty poor show yesterday. We should complain to the advertising companies and ask for our money back… Having said that, I can’t say anything went particularly wrong. In fact, I wasn’t really expecting too much in several of the pairs and overall it was a decent day – but the market made a meal out of it…

Following on from yesterday, when time stood still, it should suggest a better performance today. I’m not sure what to expect in USDJPY because it seems that it may have set itself up for further consolidation. It has options and therefore we shall have to work with the limits of any consolidation. Once these limits are broken it should trigger a stronger directional move. Not a massive one but hopefully to the target area I have been detailing. That EURJPY still appears to have options also – but in both JPY pairs their targets seem to suggest the same degree of distance to travel. The only puzzle is how EURUSD will perform…

In the Europeans, GBPUSD followed my instructions for the most part. There was a slight detour towards the end of the day that can complicate things. We’ll need to be alert to the next break. This could mean that the Continentals need to make a break also. The tight range in EURUSD actually saw my support reached within 3 points. At the same time, USDCHF broke resistance but has seen a 4-hour bearish divergence – although hourly is poised to move in either direction. Thus, the key in these two will be momentum.

Finally, the Aussie gallantly pushed higher but is getting a bit stretched with the potential for an hourly bearish divergence. I can see two alternatives here – a direct move or a broad swinging one that will take another day or two to finally set it off in the larger degree trend.

Could be a bit tricky today – but note the key break levels…

Good trading

Ian Copsey