仍然是采取防守型交易方式为主—行情走势预测

一直观察美元指数的情况，并将其与有较大影响力的权重货币成员个体情况相比较，以判断得出更全面的预期结果。在沙子里是不会出现导向明确结果的流畅而清晰的线索，但综合考虑相互之间的关联情况是可以发现潜在提示信息，找出大致的阻力支撑位，有助于定位下一步的行情发展。从目前所观察到的状况来看，今天能触发破位的情况貌似非常有限。一些货币对走势出现复杂情况，提示市场将仍然处于震荡状态，伴随一些价格修正走势。但是，接下来几天后将可能会出现比较明确的方向—这取决于参与价格修正的行为表现特点。

实际上，我也从美元指数上发现了大致的特点。昨日美国银行假期所营造的市场较大的价格抗衡区间，初步出现一些较小级别的价格新极限。因此，从这点上考虑，时间似乎不足以支持较大幅度的价格波动。

周五的预期和实际情况大致相符。欧系货币对的走弱相对美元的预期走强，而英镑兑美元基本上维持宽幅横向整理。这往往会给今天和明天带来一些不确定的走势发展风险，价格运行有潜在的多个修正方向选择。同时，澳元维持震荡上行，但缺乏较强的推动力。这一点，也符合价格持续滞缓发展的风险考虑。

日元货币对产生了一些复杂结构—特别是从121.68高位开始的美元兑日元货币对。为了到达下方的预期目标，美元兑日元已呈现比较迅猛并复杂的发展走势，过程中几乎没有出现哪怕是较轻微的级别大一点的回调。显然，价格运行动能指示方向，但识别投影目标已相当困难。然而，从周四的低点出现了更符合我预期的修正行情。这并没有解决问题的复杂性但确实提供了一个指引。

从另一方面看，欧元兑日元已经出现了较弱的价格反抽高点。或许还会有些价格发展空间但目前还没找到关键的价格低点。

稳健操作，并以短线交易为主的操作方式，更容易增加利润。

预祝拥有获利丰厚的交易周。

伊恩•科普塞伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Defensive trading still

I’ve been observing the Dollar Index and comparing the more influential individual components to judge the larger outcome. There’s no hard and fast line in the sand that will trigger a definite result but the correlation between them all does suggest potential to provide general break levels that can point to the next larger move. From what I can see at the moment, the risk of triggering a break level today appears limited. There are some complications in a few of the pairs that suggest we’re still in a general neutral zone in which some corrective activity can develop. However, I suspect we’ll have a resolution over the next few days – dependent on the characteristic of the anticipated corrective behaviour.

I actually see this general characteristic in the U.S. Indices also. Coming out of yesterday’s U.S. bank holiday we have a rather wide neutral area to contend with, initially with some minor new extremes. Therefore, the time doesn’t appear to be ripe for a more significant move at this point.

From Friday’s outlook the outcome has generally been appropriate. Both the Continental Europeans weakened against the Dollar as expected while GBPUSD basically held in a broad sideways range. This tends to risk some uncertain development over today and tomorrow with potential for several corrective options. At the some time, the Aussie has held a broad swinging move higher but without much solid impetus. This, too, tends to match the risk for continued sluggish development.

As for the JPY pairs, these have generated some complicated structures – particularly in USDJPY from the 121.68 high. In terms of catching the downside targets it has been a particularly rampant and complicated development with a dearth of even mildly deep corrections. Clearly momentum showed the way but the identification of projection targets has been extremely tough. However, from Thursday’s low we have seen a correction that is more consistent with my expectations. That doesn’t rule out complications but does provide a guideline.

On the other hand, EURJPY has seen a less robust pullback higher. It probably has a little more to go but I can’t see that we have found a key low just yet.

Steady and mostly short term trading is more likely to generate profits.

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey