非农日行情走势预测

市场正在盘绕另一个弹簧…

我对市场昨日的走势表现略感满意。美元兑瑞士法郎仍有一些关键点位没被突破。价格走势情况仍预警潜在的上下快速穿刺的价格运行情况存在，特别是当我们不得不忍受美联储的月度恶作剧，强忍市场跌荡困扰的时候。我感觉正潜在形成一个显著的价格波动…

因此，昨天美元出现的下跌，不得不迫使我重新评估美元指数的情况。一段时间内对此曾感到困扰，由于缺乏可以隐藏在日K线内的5分钟和1小时级别的价格运行动能信息，调整日内的计算总是充满误判的风险。我对美元有自己基本的大概4-5年的长期预期，昨日的价格结构及走势表现看上去也与最终结果相符。因此，我对较大级别的周期走势情况较为满意，但目前关键的是今天会发生怎样的情况。

昨天的价格运行发展中，美元兑日元在3个pips之内触及了更大的投影目标—这意味着将出现某种程度的震荡—但结合欧元兑美元进一步往预期目标点位发展的情况，带动欧元兑日元进一步修正。3个货币对之间的平衡造就了行情复杂的一天，难以判断—或许会是与预期相差较远的非农日…

总体来讲，开始出现了动能放缓的迹象，在非农数据公布之前，这种情况并不令人感到意外。但即便如此，我们或许应该面对下午欧盘早段时间的行情走势考验。

请做好准备…

祝周末愉快。

伊恩•科普塞伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Another spring coiling..?

I was quite happy about yesterday’s moves. USDCHF remains the key in terms of limits and we haven’t yet reached that point. This still warns of potential whippy development, particularly when we have to endure the Fed playing its monthly prank and forcing further self-flagellation. I sense the potential for a significant move out of this release…

So, yesterday saw further Dollar weakness, something that has forced me to re-evaluate the Dollar Index. It puzzled for a while, and adjusting daily counts are always fraught with risk of misjudgement due to the lack of information from the 5-minute and hourly movements that can be hidden from view within a daily bar. I have had my basic long-term outlook for the Dollar for around 4-5 years now and the structures I have seen in my workings yesterday do seem to still fit with the final outcome. I am therefore ptty comfortable with the larger grand cycle but it’s now a matter of what happens today.

On yesterday’s development, USDJPY reached the stronger projection target within 3 pips – and this suggests some decent swings – but with EURUSD reaching towards the targets I have, the impact on EURJPY was for a deeper recovery. This balance between the three pairs makes this a tough day to judge – which perhaps is ptty much as would be expected on NFP day…

In general, we are seeing momentum beginning to slow but that’s hardly a surprise before NFP but even then we shall probably face the gauntlet early in the European afternoon.

Be ppared…

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey