市场运行盘绕如弹簧—行情走势预测

市场运行盘绕如弹簧......

欧元兑美元的这一段价格走势源于1.0539低位。从该位置开始，出现了超过3周以上的很长很长…的横向走势。在1月28日，价格上破1.0960之后，我锁定了两个中期目标区间，价格应会在进一步反弹之前再到达这些目标区间。以个人保守方式来看，将会维持纷繁复杂的价格发展状态，出现更深度的修正—可能是复杂的状况—这种价格运行状况将会持续到下周或者下下周。然而，昨天的价格运行在3根棒线之内就到达了之前锁定的两个中期目标…

实在是太保守了...

但是，这样的价格发展状况符合潜在预期，价格强势上扬带动了1个或2个货币对中的价格调整，并且进一步清晰了其他货币对的情况。特别是美元兑瑞士法郎，个人认为其走势目标应与欧元兑美元相配合。同样地，英镑兑美元（最大修正幅度）价格原本运行于结构范围内，正常来讲只有相对窄幅的价格运行目标区间。这３个欧系货币对倾向于展开下一个更好的修正走势。

与此同时，澳元兑美元反弹到更高位。这个反弹深度已超出我预期，但并没有真正改变下一个结果的出现…

至于日元兑美元，前期行情所走出的高点带有欺骗性，从４小时的看跌信号，１小时的运行动能情况来看，价格应会下行――但没有预想到价格会继续下行并打破下方一系列平常分析出来的支撑位。然而，在更大的时间框架里，我的观点并没有什么改变并且这些价格运行情况我认为是有建设性意义的。

今天的市场价格运行应该会稳定些，不要期待重复昨日的走势发展．．．

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Coiled like a spring…

The origin of this move came from the 1.0539 low. From there we have seen a long, long… err… long sideways move over three weeks. After the break of 1.0960 on the 28th January, I penned two intermediate target areas that should be met before rallying further. In my own conservative manner I thought the cumbersome development would continue, deeper corrections – maybe complex – and that we’d see this move into next week or the week after. Yesterday saw those two intermediate targets met within 3 hourly bars…

So much for being conservative…

However, it was the underlying expectation and the rush of blood has caused both some adjustments in one or two pairs and greater clarification in the others. In particular, I think that USDCHF will provide the target and should match with EURUSD. Equally, GBPUSD (which was the biggest adjustment) is in a position in the structure that normally has a relatively tight range for targets. These three Europeans tend to have a nice correlation for the next move.

Meanwhile, AUDUSD whipped back higher. The depth of this rally has been far deeper than I had anticipated but doesn’t really change the next outcome…

And as for the JPY pairs. Those highs we saw really duped me. It was clear from the bearish 4-hour & hourly momentum that we’d see losses – but I hadn’t expected the drop we saw that blew out the list of supports I normally generate in the analysis. However, in the bigger picture nothing has change in my views and I see this as constructive.

Today should be steadier but don’t expect a repeat of yesterday…

Good trading

Ian Copsey