建设性的进展--行情走势预测

我略带谨慎看待昨天的市场发展，但不得不说，总体来讲，昨日的市场走势与个人预期非常相符。昨天市场走势发展中出现的一个或两个问题，足以说明需要维持谨慎态度以观察价格运行会否逐步接近预期目标。所有的货币对当中，英镑兑美元的价格被强势推高—印证了我预期价格在1.4148位置似乎会发展延展平台的阶段，创出一个新高的猜想。基于此考虑，由于横向的震荡走势出现，4小时级别的价格运行动能—甚至在1小时级别—并没出现有实际帮助意义的信息，因为并没出现任何的背离信号。甚至在30分钟级别或15分钟级别的时间框架里也没有出现…

这或令欧系货币短期内出现较复杂的走势，意味着今天或只会出现相对窄幅的交易区间。特别是对于欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎来讲，看起来今天呈现的将是跌宕起伏的震荡走势。

澳元几乎是走势明朗的模范，虽然有出现下跌到前期修正区间的价格运行情况。我更想看到价格能运行到较低一点的位置—这样会令结构显得更清晰些—但总体来讲我对目前出现的结构形态情况基本感到满意。价格走势应该很快出现更多有建设性的进展。

美元兑日元的走势发展也不错，但略显慢。美元兑日元似乎会有更明显的区间震荡走势出现的风险，但仍会往创新高的方向发展。结合欧元兑美元的横向区间走势以及美元兑日元更明确的走势发展考虑，这将会引起欧元兑日元的延续上涨，但这种上涨并没有强大的延续力度。

如此看来，我们又回到了相对稳定，但复杂的行情发展状态中。如一定要我选出一个价格发展方向较明确的交易品种的话，那么它就是澳元兑美元…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Constructive progress

I was slightly cautious about how things would go yesterday but I have to say that, on the whole, the moves we saw yesterday were ptty much in line with my outlook. There are one or two issues within yesterday’s development and enough to continue with a cautious approach from this point. Of all the pairs it was GBPUSD that pushed higher more robustly - confirming my suspicion that we’d see a new high following what appeared to be an expanded flat at 1.4148. With this, because of the messy sideways move, 4-hour momentum – even hourly – are not really helpful because we’ll not get any divergences. These aren’t even psent in the 30-minute or even 15-minute charts…

This leaves the Europeans with further short-term complications that suggest the risk of some relatively tight range trading today. In particular, EURUSD and USDCHF look like seeing a choppy day today.

The Aussie was hardly a model of clear development although dipped into the area of the prior correction. I would have liked this to be a little deeper – and with greater clarity in the structure – but overall I’m basically comfortable with the structure we have now. This should soon see more constructive progress.

The JPY pairs also developed well – slowly. The risk does seem to be for USDJPY to see some stronger swings but still looking for a new high. With the combination of sideways ranging in EURUSD and a firmer USDJPY the risk is for EURJPY to extend gains also but without great power.

So it seems we’re back to relatively steady but complicated development. If I have to choose any pair that could generate a more directional move, then it’s AUDUSD…

Good trading

Ian Copsey