美元兑日元日内行情走势预测

日内图

BIAS：上下震荡走势风险

主要分析：我们需要另一个反弹走势,但不是从118.41开始…因此，从日本央行公布出乎市场意料的声明后的行情开始跟进。今日开盘个人感觉需要一个初级的行情修正，修正到120.46-55区间。从该区间预期出现3浪结构的反弹走势，价格反弹至121.72-75区间（允许到达121.93高位）。在此区间价格需要大约70个点（大约）的修正。然后再出现另一个3浪结构的反弹（取决于价格届时在121.73-93之间的所处位置），价格或运行在122.15-20范围或者122.40-65范围。因此，确定所述行情能有序发展，以便找寻看跌反转信号。这应该是开始下行之前的最终高点。

反向分析：只有突破122.70上方，才能看到价格延续上行到122.85-90区间，并且有运行到123.15-25的潜在可能，最高点会去到123.40-50范围。

价格运行破位到120.40下方，将会引发下跌走势。下方并没有太多明显的支持区域，但留意价格在119.70，119.10和118.95这些点位的运行情况。

中期分析：

2月1日：如上述，第二个价格腿比预期运行更高更直接，从122.15和122.62之间，应该会完成3浪结构走势。请注意，或会有更高的价格点位出现，但个人感觉后续走势发展有限。因为这个走势已展现了3浪的结构，也就意味着会出现更长时间的横向整固走势出现的风险（三角形态？），但不排除价格直接展开下行走势的可能。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩•科普塞伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

DAILY FORECAST FOR USDJPY

INTRADAY CHART

BIAS:               This risks a down-up day

Resistance:           121.72-93 122.15-20         122.40      122.62

Support:                    120.91       120.70      120.46-55         120.00-20

MAIN ANALYSIS:     Snafu… I felt we needed another rally but not from 118.41… Thus, the direct follow through after the BOJ announcement obviously came as a surprise. As today begins I feel we need an initial correction back to the 120.46-55 area. From there we should see a 3 wave rally that needs to reach the 121.72-75 area (allow for as high as 121.93). Here we will need a correction of around 70 points (approx). From here we will need another 3-wave rally that (depending on where in the range between 121.72-93 stalls) could stall as low as 122.15-20 or as high as 122.40-65. Therefore, make sure that the development I have described  develops in order to look for bearish reversal indications. This should be the final high before daily losses resume.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Only a break above 122.70 could see price extend to 122.85-90 and potentially 123.15-25 and max 123.40-50.

A direct break below 120.40 would see direct losses. There aren't too many obvious support areas but take care at 119.70, 119.10-30 and 118.95.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:

1st February:  Well, as described above, the second leg higher was far more direct than expected but should complete a 3-wave move from between 122.15 and 122.62. Take care, there are higher levels but I feel the follow-through will be limited. Because this has developed in 3-waves there is a risk of a longer sideways consolidation (triangle?) but I cannot rule out a more direct resumption of losses.

Good trading

Ian Copsey