市场转变—行情走势预测

仍然维持对美元的看涨预期。依然保留1年多之前（或更长时间）的观点并继续观察下一年的市场走势发展情况以明确美元的主要高点。在过去几周内，我一直观察美元兑瑞士法郎在潜在阻力位的运行情况，大约1.0200-16区间，但只要有利于美元的上涨，个人更倾向舍弃对这个阻力位的考虑。昨日欧元兑美元的走强，证明了美元兑瑞士法郎的预期观点正确。不得不承认欧元兑美元的进一步上行发展。这是预期外的反弹走势，但并没有給较大的年线级别带来改变，并且目前预期美元应不会过度走弱，美元指数似乎会发展延展平台走势。

因此，我们需要基于目前手上所掌握的情况构建预期计划。美元的弱势从美元兑日元的走势中得到有效体现，同时潜在体现于英镑兑美元走势表现当中，虽然英镑看起来跌势更猛。欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎似乎会出现较稳定的价格运行，而不是疯狂的走势。因此，最好关注短线交易机会。相当震荡的较低级别浪，仍然会令盘面看起来像小孩在纸上画的涂鸦。

对于澳元兑美元的走势情况我有一个疑问。预期结构较难发展，一是需要出现另1个高点，但盘面已出现了明显的价格反抽，而我对其价格运行情况会引领美元的反弹并不感到意外—但可能要等到下周。

美元兑日元的走势情况不太明朗，最好有下行走势展开的确认。参考欧元兑日元的走势情况将会很有助于其价格运行的反转判断。显然，看起来并不像被欧元兑美元的走势所牵制，所以欧元兑日元出现的高点情况将提示其“父辈”货币对的下行走势…

祝周末愉快。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A turn around

My underlying view of the Dollar remains bullish. I have not abandoned the view I made over one year ago (and longer) and continue to see next year as reaching a major Dollar high. Over the past couple of weeks I have been observing a potential barrier in USDCHF around 1.0200-16 but was more willing to give up this barrier in favour of Dollar gains. Yesterday’s strength in EURUSD has proven the view in USDCHF was correct. I have to concede to further gains in EURUSD. This additional rally does not change the larger multi-year structure and the now anticipated Dollar weakness should not be excessive and looks like generating an expanded flat in the Dollar Index.

Therefore, we need to build on the current situation in hand. This Dollar weakness looks valid in USDJPY and potentially in GBPUSD although the Pound is more likely to see greater whipsaws. Both EURUSD and USDCHF are likely to see steady progress rather than frantic trends. Therefore, it may be better to watch for shorter-term trades. The rather choppy lower degree waves are still subject to make the chart look a bit like a baby scribbling on a piece of paper.

One puzzle I have is in AUDUSD. It has a rather difficult development – one that should require another high but we have already seen a significant pullback and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it lead the Dollar rally – but probably not until next week.

With USDJPY not quite clear, it will be best to confirm losses. It will be useful to use the rally in EURJPY to make judgement as to when it will see a reversal. Clearly, this doesn’t look like being controlled by EURUSD so a top in EURJPY will suggest that we’ll see it’s “parent” moving lower…

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey