市场休眠期—行情走势预测

市场休眠期

过去2-3周的行情平淡无趣，市场走势似乎尽量避开往任一可能拐角，价格密集区或缺口区域发展，自我隐藏以避免做出选择方向的决定。实际上也没任何能真正隐藏的地方—也许有些黑暗，带有灰尘的较隐蔽的缺口区域，价格可以在此快速地作短暂隐藏，之后就迅速离开。较有力的价格运行关键位于更高级别的结构内，但这些结构已开始冲破各种障碍并藏于后方。
市场仍有些缓冲区域可以进行价格测试—但只与目前仅剩的价格运行空间相关—较强的价格走势会带来短暂的新鲜空气。我不确定这种情况能否持续较长时间。

实际上，在澳元兑美元的走势当中有出现一些迹象。但还处于发展初期阶段，所以我认为目前将不会出现任何价格运行趋势，但下一步将会发展基础浪，然后价格运行方向会更明显。

美元兑日元也可能接近走出更低点的阶段，虽然我倾向预期价格创出较小新高。然而，结构已经变得不够稳固。这种情况在欧元兑日元的盘面走势也体现了呼应—虽然价格运行似乎需要创出新高。这往往意味着需要谨慎对待行情发展配合一致的难度

所有的货币对走势中，似乎只有澳元兑美元有较清晰的前景并展开符合预期的走势。因为发展基础浪的原因，其价格走势情况或与最初时有些不同，但总的来讲，需要额外关注该货币对。

或许又是一个较为沉闷无趣的交易日。远离价格拐角和缺口区域…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Hibernation

These past 2- 3 weeks have been tiresome, the market making the most out of finding every possible nook, kink or cranny to go hide itself in order not to have to make a decision on direction. There doesn’t appear to be any real place to go hide  - well maybe some dark, dusty and hidden crack where price can quickly conceal itself for a momentary pause before scuttling away again. The key to seeing a stronger move is in the higher degree structures but these are beginning to run out of nooks, cracks, kinks, crannies and cobwebs to hide behind. There’s still some buffer area that can be tested - but only in the context of remaining in the recent range – and that a stronger move will then bring a temporary whiff of fresh air. I’m not sure it will last for too long.

Actually, there are signs of movement in AUDUSD. It’s still in the early stages so I don’t think we’re going to see any trend developing just yet, but the foundation waves should be the next step that will later generate a more directional move.

USDJPY is probably close to making a move lower also although I'd pfer to see a minor new high. However, the structure has become rather ragged and unstable. This is echoed by EURJPY – although it does seem to require a new high. This tends to suggest care with the development difficult to tie down.

Of all the pairs it is AUDUSD that seem to have the stronger outlook to generate a decent move. It may not look like it initially because of the need to build the foundation waves, but overall keep an eye out on this group in particular.

Probably another relatively boring day. Keep out of the nooks and crannies…

Good trading

Ian Copsey