强行修正无序走势--行情走势预测

市场喜欢以复杂的方式运行…这种情况令我想起了去年年中的震荡行情。这段时间，市场一旦失去魅力，就转换严肃的休眠模式，强行修正的因素令市场走势震荡。

虽然昨日行情发展有些异常，形态结构看上去已进行较深程度的复杂自我修正。总体结果仍然保持不变，只是需要经过更漫长的曲折发展路径才能到达目标。所以我们转换另一种方式，但最终仍会得到同样的结果。

澳元并不需要调整。其价格简单地运行到预期较低位置。但仍有较大缓冲区，在这些区域或会可能出现价格反弹。这些价格运行情况需要细致观察，以确定触发下一个更大级别价格走势发展的关键。因此，坚守计划以便选择合适点位。

对英镑兑美元的走势发展持有双向观点，虽然初步下行至较低位置的情况符合预期。价格已打破下方关键支撑但并不意味着直接下行…事实上，我倾向赞同另一个观点，即结合价格已触及4小时级别的价格均衡云图支撑位置的情况下，价格往更高点位运行。需要确认上行走势的恢复。因此，谨慎看待价格运行情况。

美元兑日元未能延续上行走势并转向下行发展。这是比预期更深的发展程度，但从上周五的价格高位来看，仍然有进一步上行的潜在空间。如英镑兑美元，4小时级别价格均衡云图显示上升并支撑价格运行，这是我目前主要的优先考虑情况。有些清晰的价格新高目标区域，所以不要期待明显反弹的出现。这个同样有助于欧元兑日元往更高点位运行，但其间的交错运行处于自省情绪中并且看起来仍不会出现任何大幅波动。因此，可能最好的处理方式就是观察其价格运行过程直至结束…

祝交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Obsessive Corrective Disorder…

Wow… the market loves doing things the hard way… It really reminds me of the mess that developed in the middle of last year. These days, once the market has lost its mojo, it reverts into Serious Hibernation Mode, a factor of Obsessive Corrective Disorder that causes the market to shiver and quake so that it goes home to Mummy and cries.

Ok. That’s vented my frustration…

Despite yesterday’s weirdness, the structures just seems to have organised themselves to make the most of deeper corrections and complicated and intricate complex corrections. The general outcome still remains the same but just taking a long winding path to get to its destination. So we are taking another diversion but one that should still eventually reach to the same outcome.

The Aussie didn’t require a diversion. It simply moved back lower as expected. There is still quite a wide buffer within which bounces can occur. It’s one of those moves that needs keen observation to identify triggers for the next larger move. Thus, stick to the task in order to pick the right point.

I was rather in two minds in GBPUSD although with an initial move lower expected. However, it broke below key support but that needn’t imply direct losses… Indeed, I tend to favour another push higher with price having reached support provided by the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud. It needs confirmation to resume the upside. Thus, take care.

USDJPY failed to extend gains and instead embarked on a downward path. This has been deeper than expected but from Friday’s high it still has potential for further gains. Like GBPUSD, the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud is rising and supporting price and that’s my main pference for now. There are some clear target areas for any new high so don’t expect a significant rally. This may help EURJPY higher but the cross is in a really introspective mood and doesn’t look like making any sharp moves still. Thus, it’s probably best to watch for this move to end…

Good trading

Ian Copsey