市场总体有积极发展现象--行情走势预测

市场总体有积极发展现象

两大欧系货币上周五较强的走势表现符合之前预期。价格运行情况似乎会继续延续，但相对于周五来讲价格波动可能会减少。我仍然认为这个更大级别的整固走势会持续到下个月，所以目前不太可能出现潜在的较长时期趋势。英镑兑美元已加入欧元的背离方向阵型，但却是往另一个方向发展，这多少有点令人觉得沮丧。然而，当欧系货币对处于修正走势阶段时，英镑兑美元却仍然保持推动走势状态。不幸的是，上周五出现的反弹情况意味着周四的低点是属于中期低点。目前情况增加了些不确定性风险，价格有运行到短暂修正阶段的潜在可能，因此与欧元运行情况有更大关联性。

澳元的价格反弹停滞在目标区间高位，并且现在应该会下行到略低位置。我们需要观察支撑区域的价格运行情况，但估计今天会被有效下破。因此，预期其下行幅度将有限以便后续整固走势的发展。

美元兑日元的关键阻力位已被有效突破，价格需要往下回调。同时，在反弹走势当中可以确定推动目标。也就是说，目前价格运行的稍高点位将是价格上行走势的尾声。在上行方向中仍有两个目标区间，但价格不会直接到达这些目标区域。因此，注意在预期支撑区域内，价格的反弹发展情况。

美元兑日元的持续上涨和欧元兑美元的下跌，推动了欧元兑日元的震荡上行。对该货币对的发展情况有所存疑。继长期横盘整理，下跌后，目前价格运行处于模糊状态中，虽然现在价格略偏高。需要关注后续发展情况，或许最好是等到预期结构发展的确认。一旦确认，走势情况将变得更加清晰。

预祝拥有获利丰厚的交易周

祝交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Generally positive progress

The two Continental Europeans were the stronger performers on Friday as suggested. This looks set to continue but probably with less momentum compared to Friday. I remain with the view that this larger consolidation should still extend into next month so the potential for longer-term trends looks very unlikely at this point. That GBPUSD did join the European’s directional bias – but in the opposite direction was a little bit frustrating. However, while the Continentals are in a corrective phase, GBPUSD is not – still maintaining an impulsive outlook. Unfortunately the recovery we saw on Friday has implied that Thursday’s low was an intermediate low. This now risks a little more uncertainty with potential for it to move into a temporary corrective phase and thus more broadly correlate with the Continentals.

The Aussie’s rally stalled in the high end of the targeted range and should now dip lower. There’s a support range that we need watch for and I doubt this will break today. Thus expect limited losses and potential for subsequent consolidation.

The breaks of the key resistance levels in USDJPY have confirmed that a low is in place. At the same time it confirmed the impulsive targets within its rally. Having said that, it is towards the end of the current move higher. There are still a couple of target areas on the upside but this shouldn’t occur directly. Thus, take note of the expected support area from where the additional rally can develop.

That USDJPY continued its rally and EURUSD its decline provided EURJPY with a choppy move higher. I have some doubts about this pair. Following the long sideways consolidation and dip, it’s in the midst of an ambiguous outcome although the pference is probably higher for now. It will need some care and probably best to wait until the structure I feel is developing is confirmed. Once that happens the outcome will become clearer.

Have a profitable week