美元行情走势预测

美元涨幅有限的一天

昨日行情震荡无序，总体来讲，行情发展并不理想，除了美元兑日元，是第一个从上周五的低点反转的货币对—这些情况总是有清晰的目标预期。另外，欧系货币的表现有些纠结，但总体来讲整体状况保持完好。不同的是，看起来似乎主要货币对今天都提示美元上涨信号，但事实情况是现阶段我们正处于更大级别的调整结构中（除了英镑兑美元），仍然是抱谨慎态度，保持简短而愉悦的交易节奏。

我发现一些更高级别的结构，这些结构已被测试了一段时间—至少还会持续到2月中旬。如我们在今年年初所见，即使更低程度的结构发展，在其修正区间里也有衍生出更深的回调，并经常出现复杂的结果。欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎，价格在4小时周期的价格均衡云图区域内震荡，这些表现并没有给预期带来太多的信心，从某些方面考虑，如果不确定，就不要自寻困扰甚至去冒险。

昨日令人意外的是英镑兑美元下行到更低的价格运行走势…这给我带来一个有待日后解答的问题，但希望我已将这些情况包含在可控范围内。今天的情况看起来倾向于盘整走势，需要给予更多关注。即使澳元的价格运行情况给我的预期带来一些困扰—首先找出推动走势，但有可能已经转变成修正模式。价格运行应该还会触及更高点，不过被修正的过程中将会出现困难以及引起更复杂的进一步修正。

如之前所述，美元兑日元走势情况符合预期—在反弹中出现了更深回调的现象，即便不在我的常规预期范围内。还有欧元兑美元中出现的更深度回撤，迫使欧元兑日元往更高点位运行，似乎提示看涨的结果。我并不认为走势发展属于推动式，因为欧元兑美元看上去不像有这么多上行空间—但可能会出现偏空震荡走势。因此，美元兑日元的走势情况将推动相应关交叉货币对走强，否则会延续弱势横向整理走势。

今天是难熬的一天。可以说美元兑日元的走势情况可能是最好的传导介质，但也存在横盘运行的风险…谨慎为上。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A mostly limited Dollar bullish day

It was a messy day yesterday and not a great day overall with the exception of USDJPY that was in the first reversal from Friday’s low - these always have a very clear target. Otherwise, the Europeans had some kinks that troubled but appear to generally be still overall intact. For a change it seems as if the major pairs are all Dollar bullish today but given the fact we are in larger corrective structures (with the exception of GBPUSD) it will still be prudent to keep trades short and sweet.

I still see the higher degree structure as being very testing for some while – at least into mid-February. As we have seen since the beginning of the year, even the lower degree development has generated rather deep pullbacks in the corrective areas and often with complex outcomes. The sight of both EURUSD and USDCHF swinging around the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds never provokes much confidence and in some ways, if uncertain, just don’t even bother to take a risk.

What did surprise yesterday was the whip back lower in GBPUSD… That gave me a puzzle to resolve but hopefully I have got this under control again. Having said that, today looks like a day of swings that will need some attention. Even the Aussie gave me some trouble – first looking for an impulsive move but which has turned into corrective mode. That should still point higher but being corrective can launch into complex corrections and difficulties.

As mentioned, USDJPY did well – even if there was a deeper pullback within the rally that I would not normally expect. Along with a deeper pullback in EURUSD, it has forced EURJPY higher and seems to suggest a bullish outcome. I don’t think it’s going to be impulsive because EURUSD doesn’t seem to have much more on the upside – but could see a sideways to lower day. Therefore, it’s going to be USDJPY that carries the cross higher else it will continue in a subdued sideways meandering.

It’ll be a tough day. I could say that USDJPY could be the best vehicle but there is risk of sideways movement… Take care.

Good trading

Ian Copsey