谨慎看待市场变化--行情走势预测

较长一段时间内继续保持谨慎

昨天出现一些推动浪序列被破败的情况。这些现象似乎意味着去年围绕着整个市场的震荡风险出现了，但我不认为会维持这么长时间。在这个阶段，基于结构发展的前提下，存在几种可能选项，结合考虑范围内的货币对，及其在各自结构内所运行的位置—或能得出大致的发展思路。开始阶段，只需以美元指数作为基准指引，预期的走强部分被下破，展开更深度的下行修正。但97.19是下修的极限低位，意味着现在运行的是不规则的三角形走势。走势倾向预示美元有限的下行空间。这个三角形走势或会发展为横向走势直至本月底，或者还会延续小部分走势到2月份。所以，需要观察各货币对的价格运行情况，留意走势是否符合各自的结构条件，从综合比较中应该能得出各货币对走势发展的更好思路

在所观察的货币对中，英镑兑美元和澳元对美元仍然位于推动浪中，但预期后续空间有限。交叉货币对欧元兑日元也应继续下行，略有点费解的是位于其间的美元兑日元如何产生影响，因为交叉货币对需要出现下降走势，但也可以从欧元兑美元的价格运行中得到驱动。目前仍然需要从欧元兑美元的走势情况来确定进一步的下行发展。美元兑瑞士法郎的走势情况也符合美元的上涨预期，但也和欧元兑美元的情况一样需要进一步确认。对美元指数的预期中，这些情况的发生似乎会带来更高风险。

需要警惕的是，在形成一个较大级别修正结构的过程中，总会有循环嵌套式修正走势的风险出现。这意味着目前应倾向于寻找短线交易机会...

祝交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Take care… for a long while…

Yesterday saw the impulsive sequence break. This appears to suggest the risk of the neutral trading that besieged the market last year only I don’t think it will last for as long. At this stage there are several possible options in terms of the structures that can develop - and with the range of currency pairs and their positions within their individual structures – we may get a general idea of how this can develop. For a start, just taking the Dollar Index as a broad guide, the strength I had expected was dashed and forced a deeper correction lower. However, the 97.19 low was an extreme pullback and as such, it suggests that it is now developing in an irregular triangle. That tends to suggest limited losses in the Dollar. This triangle could extend sideways to the end of this month – maybe a little into February. So, we need to look at the individual currency pairs, look to see how these fit into their own structures and from the combinations we should get a better idea of how each pair may develop.

Of the currency pairs I look at, we have GBPUSD and AUDUSD still in impulsive developments but with limited follow-through expected. There is also EURJPY that should also continue its losses. How USDJPY will impact on the cross is a little puzzling because we need losses in the cross but could also be driven by EURUSD. However, there is still the need for EURUSD to confirm additional losses. USDCHF also suggests Dollar gains although like EURUSD needs to confirm those gains. From the expectations in the Dollar Index, this does appear to be the higher risk.