非农后的走势预测

谨慎看待行情发展初期

周四欧盘时段，美元的下行幅度超出预期。周五虽出现收复跌幅的走势，但最终日线收线还是回到原地。就这些情况还不能说明实际走势与预期产生偏差，事实上，这是个正常的价格运行，但基本上也不会对预期带来太大信心。对于周四的美元下行，有看涨背离信号出现，但在技术上却没有得到反转更高点位的走势确认。虽已有些线索，但提示需要关注和谨慎对待，因本周开始确认下一步走势。

其中一条线索来自英镑兑美元，该货币对走势并没有完全按预期发展，但下行到一个模棱两可的点位1.4532.这种状况带来一个小小的不确定性，但欧元兑美元和英镑兑美元之间的平衡运行情况应能明确这个疑虑。因此，关注各货币对在关键支撑阻力位置的价格运行情况，以明确其支撑阻力的关键性及相互之间的联系。

澳元的走势与预期相符，4小时级别，位于下倾的价格均衡云图下方，有看涨背离信号出现，所以需要谨慎看待目前价格的下跌。总体来看，该货币对的情况提示潜在盘整及反弹走势将出现。

至于日系货币对，两者走势都表现很好，在设定的上限范围之下118.70-99，日元兑美元的走势符合预期。这样有助于欧元兑日元寻找出高低点，种种迹象表明今天美元兑日元不太可能出现更大跌幅，但欧元兑日元需要出现下跌—而这种趋势发展需要从欧元兑美元的价格运行中得到驱动能量。

预祝拥有获利丰厚的交易周

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Take care from the start

While the depth of Thursday’s Dollar losses in the Continental Europeans were unexpected Friday saw that turned around but ended the day back at square one. I can’t say anything has gone wrong. Indeed, it was a healthy move but basically it doesn’t engender much confidence. Yes, we had Dollar bullish divergences at Thursday’s Dollar lows but it hasn’t technically confirmed a reversal back higher. I feel the signs are there but it still suggests the need for due care and attention as the week begins to confirm the next move.

One clue came from GBPUSD that didn’t develop quite as expected but appears down to a rather ambiguous dip to 1.4532. It generates a little uncertainty but the balance between the movement in EURUSD and GBPUSD should clarify the outcome. Thus, watch for the key levels in each individual currency pair to identify the key levels and how they correlate with each other.

The Aussie worked well, capped by the declining 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud. However, there are signs of a 4-hour bullish divergence so some caution should be noted as this declines. Overall it does suggest potential for a less directional move and potentially more whippy development.

As for the JPY pairs, both behaved extremely well, the 118.70-99 range I set as a cap working well. This helped EURJPY to find a cap and edge lower. There are signs that USDJPY will unlikely see strong losses today but EURJPY needs to see losses – and this tends to argue for EURUSD to provide the driving engine.

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey